The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 41 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 51

Wilder than 51% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 10.7 expected

  • Biggest shockKent State over Buffalo15% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Georgia24% chance · won 45-42
  • Runner-upKansas over Missouri24% chance · won 40-37

Upsets

Wed, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Western Michigan@#20Ball State
18%
82%
22
45
✓
BALL −14.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Northern Illinois
45%
55%
16
0
✗
NIU −1.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Texas A&M@#4Texas
1.3%
99%
9
49
✓
TEX −35.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
#22West Virginia@PittsburghUpset
50%
50%
15
19
✓
WVU −0.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
72%
28%
52
56
✗
CMU −9.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
15%
85%
0
45
✓
MISS −16.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
61%
39%
41
26
✓
OHIO −4.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@East Carolina
34%
66%
21
53
✓
ECU −6.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Temple
43%
57%
6
27
✓
TEM −2.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@BuffaloUpset
15%
85%
24
21
✗
BUF −16.2
–
–
Final
#23LSU@ArkansasUpset
69%
31%
30
31
✗
LSU −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 3 games

Final
Colorado@#24Nebraska
14%
86%
31
40
✓
NEB −16.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
60%
40%
38
10
✓
BGSU −4.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#12Boise State
10%
90%
10
61
✓
BOIS −20.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@Arizona State
28%
72%
9
34
✓
ASU −8.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#16GeorgiaUpset
24%
76%
45
42
✗
UGA −11.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@NC State
60%
40%
28
38
✗
MIA −4.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Clemson
39%
61%
14
31
✓
CLEM −3.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
22%
78%
14
17
✓
VT −11.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Cincinnati
7.0%
93%
10
30
✓
CIN −23.3
–
–
Final
Kansasvs#7MissouriUpset
24%
76%
40
37
✗
MIZ −10.9
–
–
Final
UAB@UCFUpset
24%
76%
15
0
✗
UCF −10.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
89%
11%
33
28
✓
ARST −19.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@Louisiana Tech
62%
38%
35
31
✓
NEV −5.2
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
New Mexico State@Utah State
39%
61%
2
47
✓
USU −3.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@SMU
78%
22%
28
12
✓
USM −12.9
–
–
Final
#1Florida@Florida State
85%
15%
45
15
✓
FLA −17.2
–
–
Final
Maryland@Boston College
22%
78%
21
28
✓
BC −11.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
66%
34%
28
20
✓
UNC −6.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
22%
78%
6
45
✓
MEM −11.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
55%
45%
42
56
✗
HOU −2.5
–
–
Final
#21Tulsa@Marshall
84%
16%
38
35
✓
TLSA −16.3
–
–
Final
Auburn@#11Alabama
12%
88%
0
36
✓
ALA −18.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#6Texas Tech
5.6%
94%
28
35
✓
TTU −25.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
29%
71%
50
57
✓
FAU −8.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
42%
58%
10
28
✓
TENN −2.7
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#14Oregon@#15Oregon State
40%
60%
65
38
✗
ORST −3.5
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#3USC
3.1%
97%
3
38
✓
USC −29.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#10Oklahoma State
66%
34%
61
41
✓
OU −7.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington State@Hawaii
9.0%
91%
10
24
✓
HAW −21.1
–
–

Sun, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
38%
62%
10
23
✓
WAKE −4.3
–
–