The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 58

Wilder than 58% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockNC State over North Carolina9.6% chance · won 41-10
  • Runner-upSyracuse over Notre Dame9.8% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upOle Miss over LSU27% chance · won 31-13

Upsets

Wed, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
60%
40%
42
14
✓
NIU −4.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
44%
56%
23
41
✓
GT −2.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#20Ball State@Central Michigan
73%
27%
31
24
✓
BALL −10.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
40%
60%
40
34
✗
BGSU −3.4
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Toledo
34%
66%
14
42
✓
TOL −6.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
59%
41%
24
10
✓
FRES −4.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
West Virginia@Louisville
69%
31%
35
21
✓
WVU −8.3
–
–
Final
NC State@#22North CarolinaUpset
9.6%
90%
41
10
✗
UNC −20.4
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
8.9%
91%
3
30
✓
RUTG −21.1
–
–
Final
Michigan@#11Ohio State
8.5%
92%
7
42
✓
OSU −21.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@Virginia
56%
44%
13
3
✓
CLEM −2.8
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
21%
79%
10
62
✓
PUR −12.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
34%
66%
20
10
✗
VAN −6.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Temple
16%
84%
52
55
✓
TEM −15.4
–
–
Final
UCF@Memphis
42%
58%
28
21
✗
MEM −2.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
56%
44%
31
20
✓
CSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Mississippi State
48%
52%
28
31
✓
MSST −0.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Notre DameUpset
9.8%
90%
24
23
✗
ND −20.2
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Washington@Washington State
60%
40%
13
16
✗
WASH −4.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Arkansas State
39%
61%
14
28
✓
ARST −4.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
4.2%
96%
7
56
✓
TLSA −27.3
–
–
Final
Stanford@#17California
19%
81%
16
37
✓
CAL −13.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#18LSUUpset
27%
73%
31
13
✗
LSU −9.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
51%
49%
24
21
✓
BC −0.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
54%
46%
42
49
✗
AKR −2.3
–
–
Final
#25Michigan State@#5Penn State
13%
87%
18
49
✓
PSU −17.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@Rice
26%
74%
10
35
✓
RICE −10.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Houston
19%
81%
37
42
✓
HOU −13.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Middle Tennessee
8.4%
92%
13
52
✓
MTSU −21.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@#10TCU
17%
83%
10
44
✓
TCU −14.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
50%
50%
10
27
✓
ILL −0.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
23%
77%
30
38
✓
KSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@New Mexico State
59%
41%
35
31
✓
LT −4.2
–
–
Final
#12Boise State@Nevada
74%
26%
41
34
✓
BOIS −10.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia Tech
18%
82%
3
14
✓
VT −14.1
–
–
Final
#21BYU@#16Utah
33%
67%
24
48
✓
UTAH −6.5
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
#24Iowa@Minnesota
59%
41%
55
0
✓
IOWA −4.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
37%
63%
21
28
✓
CIN −4.8
–
–
Final
Florida State@Maryland
48%
52%
37
3
✗
MD −0.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
72%
28%
21
42
✗
UNLV −9.6
–
–
Final
#6Texas Tech@#4Oklahoma
34%
66%
21
65
✓
OU −6.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Idaho@Hawaii
2.5%
98%
17
49
✓
HAW −31.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UConn@USF
42%
58%
13
17
✓
USF −2.6
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
East Carolina@UAB
71%
29%
17
13
✓
ECU −9.1
–
–
Final
#15Oregon State@#19Arizona
47%
53%
19
17
✗
ARIZ −0.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@FIU
37%
63%
31
27
✗
FIU −4.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
24%
76%
3
48
✓
TROY −10.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 22 · 1:30 PM ET The Citadel at #1 Florida Florida −68.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 22 · 3:30 PM ET Cal Poly at Wisconsin Wisconsin −41.0 >99%