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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 23

Wilder than 23% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockUNLV over Arizona State14% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upMaryland over California25% chance · won 35-27
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Rutgers26% chance · won 44-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Rutgers
26%
74%
44
12
✗
RUTG −9.6
–
–

Fri, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington State@Baylor
38%
62%
17
45
✓
BAY −4.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Air Force@Houston
56%
44%
31
28
✓
AF −2.8
–
–
Final
#9California@MarylandUpset
75%
25%
27
35
✗
CAL −11.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#21Michigan State
13%
87%
0
17
✓
MSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Duke
50%
50%
31
41
✓
NAVY −0.3
–
–
Final
NC State@Clemson
15%
85%
9
27
✓
CLEM −15.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Illinois
12%
88%
17
20
✓
ILL −17.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Buffalo
38%
62%
28
30
✓
BUF −4.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
43%
57%
41
17
✗
EMU −2.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
26%
74%
5
17
✓
IOWA −9.2
–
–
Final
UAB@Tennessee
6.1%
94%
3
35
✓
TENN −23.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@#17Missouri
12%
88%
17
69
✓
MIZ −17.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@Akron
58%
42%
41
24
✓
BALL −3.6
–
–
Final
Stanford@#16TCU
12%
88%
14
31
✓
TCU −18.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
32%
68%
31
28
✗
OHIO −6.6
–
–

Afternoon 9 games

Final
East Carolina@Tulane
77%
23%
28
24
✓
ECU −11.7
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Syracuse
94%
6.5%
55
13
✓
PSU −23.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@BYU
41%
59%
0
59
✓
BYU −2.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia Tech
42%
58%
17
20
✓
VT −2.5
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Purdue
77%
23%
32
26
✓
ORE −12.0
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@South Carolina
58%
42%
14
7
✓
UGA −3.6
–
–
Final
Michigan@Notre Dame
61%
39%
17
35
✗
MICH −4.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Oregon State
44%
56%
7
45
✓
ORST −1.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Idaho
91%
8.6%
51
28
✓
WMU −21.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@#19Kentucky
16%
84%
14
20
✓
UK −15.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Nebraska
11%
89%
7
38
✓
NEB −18.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Vanderbilt
22%
78%
21
38
✓
VAN −11.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Marshall
40%
60%
16
17
✓
MRSH −3.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#18Alabama
6.2%
94%
7
41
✓
ALA −23.6
–
–
Final
#11Auburn@Mississippi State
77%
23%
3
2
✓
AUB −12.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Arkansas State
51%
49%
27
24
✓
USM −0.7
–
–
Final
SMU@#25Texas Tech
7.5%
92%
7
43
✓
TTU −22.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@UConn
21%
79%
10
45
✓
CONN −12.1
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@Washington
78%
22%
55
14
✓
OU −12.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UNLV@Arizona StateUpset
14%
86%
23
20
✗
ASU −16.5
–
–
Final
#14Wisconsin@Fresno State
52%
48%
13
10
✓
WIS −1.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10Kansas@#13USF
44%
56%
34
37
✓
USF −1.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
50%
50%
10
35
✓
SDSU −0.3
–
–
Final
#15Ohio State@#2USC
22%
78%
3
35
✓
USC −11.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Boise State
19%
81%
7
20
✓
BOIS −13.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@#3LSU
0.5%
>99%
3
41
✓
LSU −39.7
–
–
Final
#22Arizona@New MexicoUpset
70%
30%
28
36
✗
ARIZ −8.5
–
–
Final
#20Utah@Utah State
87%
13%
58
10
✓
UTAH −17.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Sep 12 · 8:30 PM ET Alabama A&M at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −16.2 86%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:45 PM ET Chattanooga at Florida State Florida State −50.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:03 PM ET Southern Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −25.5 95%
Sat, Sep 13 · 12:00 PM ET Montana State vs Minnesota Minnesota −37.3 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Samford at Ole Miss Ole Miss −39.3 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 13 · 1:05 PM ET Missouri State at #12 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −28.2 97%
Sat, Sep 13 · 2:00 PM ET Delaware State at Kent State Kent State −18.6 89%
Sat, Sep 13 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Troy Troy −39.1 99%
Sat, Sep 13 · 3:00 PM ET North Dakota State at Wyoming North Dakota State −3.5 58%