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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over New Mexico State12% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upVirginia over Georgia Tech19% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upDuke over Vanderbilt21% chance · won 10-7

Upsets

Wed, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ohio@Temple
34%
66%
10
14
✓
TEM −5.9
–
–

Thu, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Auburn@West Virginia
44%
56%
17
34
✓
WVU −2.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16Boise State@San Jose State
81%
19%
33
16
✓
BOIS −14.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
New Mexico@Air Force
31%
69%
10
23
✓
AF −7.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Cincinnati@UConn
45%
55%
16
40
✓
CONN −1.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
70%
30%
19
21
✗
NU −8.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@North Carolina
47%
53%
24
45
✓
UNC −0.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Wisconsin
47%
53%
17
27
✓
WIS −0.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#24Ball State
3.2%
97%
16
38
✓
BALL −29.3
–
–
Final
#8Texas Tech@#18Kansas
52%
48%
63
21
✓
TTU −1.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Miami (FL)
40%
60%
10
16
✓
MIA −3.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
54%
46%
17
6
✓
MINN −2.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Toledo
60%
40%
24
23
✓
CMU −4.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#4Florida
10%
90%
5
63
✓
FLA −20.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Nebraska
16%
84%
20
32
✓
NEB −15.2
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Kansas State
84%
16%
58
35
✓
OU −16.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Army
48%
52%
7
14
✓
ARMY −0.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@#22BYU
7.7%
92%
35
42
✓
BYU −22.4
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Duke@VanderbiltUpset
21%
79%
10
7
✗
VAN −12.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Utah State
82%
18%
30
28
✓
FRES −15.0
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
56%
44%
42
17
✓
RICE −2.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#23California
16%
84%
20
41
✓
CAL −15.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Florida State
46%
54%
20
30
✓
FSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia TechUpset
19%
81%
24
17
✗
GT −13.8
–
–
Final
#20USF@LouisvilleUpset
65%
35%
20
24
✗
USF −6.5
–
–
Final
#9Georgia@#13LSU
44%
56%
52
38
✗
LSU −2.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
14%
86%
24
27
✓
MD −16.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Michigan
65%
35%
35
21
✓
MSU −6.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
32%
68%
54
21
✗
M-OH −6.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
26%
74%
54
34
✗
PITT −9.9
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma State@#2Texas
25%
75%
24
28
✓
TEX −10.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
15%
85%
7
34
✓
NAVY −16.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
32%
68%
13
16
✓
NIU −7.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@IdahoUpset
88%
12%
14
20
✗
NMSU −19.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#10TCU
1.9%
98%
7
54
✓
TCU −32.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#7Missouri
8.1%
92%
0
58
✓
MIZ −22.0
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
54%
46%
23
21
✓
MISS −2.3
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Iowa State
46%
54%
49
35
✗
ISU −0.9
–
–
Final
Troy@North Texas
95%
5.4%
45
17
✓
TROY −26.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Mississippi State
34%
66%
22
31
✓
MSST −6.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Louisiana-Monroe
50%
50%
29
28
✓
FAU −0.6
–
–
Final
#12Alabama@Tennessee
58%
42%
29
9
✓
ALA −3.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@San Diego State
64%
36%
38
34
✓
CSU −6.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#15Oregon@Arizona State
67%
33%
54
20
✓
ORE −7.5
–
–
Final
#1USC@#21Arizona
77%
23%
17
10
✓
USC −12.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Nevada@Hawaii
41%
59%
31
38
✓
HAW −3.0
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#3Penn State@#11Ohio State
64%
36%
13
6
✓
PSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
55%
45%
30
36
✗
USM −2.3
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@Washington
63%
37%
33
7
✓
ND −5.9
–
–

Mon, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCF@#14Tulsa
7.6%
92%
19
49
✓
TLSA −22.6
–
–