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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 74 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 18

Wilder than 18% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 15.7 expected

  • Biggest shockCal Poly over San Diego State7.4% chance · won 29-27
  • Runner-upArkansas State over Texas A&M25% chance · won 18-14
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Pittsburgh32% chance · won 27-17

Upsets

Thu, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final
UTEP@Buffalo
42%
58%
17
42
✓
BUF −2.8
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Miami (OH)
53%
47%
34
13
✓
VAN −1.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
54%
46%
31
17
✓
TROY −2.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Baylor
65%
35%
41
13
✓
WAKE −6.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
58%
42%
28
36
✗
ORST −3.5
–
–

Fri, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Temple@Army
39%
61%
35
7
✗
ARMY −3.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
NC State@South Carolina
28%
72%
0
34
✓
SC −8.5
–
–

Sat, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Syracuse@Northwestern
34%
66%
10
30
✓
NU −5.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Indiana
25%
75%
13
31
✓
IU −9.8
–
–
Final
#12Virginia TechvsEast CarolinaUpset
67%
33%
22
27
✗
VT −7.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Pittsburgh
32%
68%
27
17
✗
PITT −6.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Wisconsin
22%
78%
17
38
✓
WIS −11.7
–
–
Final
#11Hawaii@#6Florida
36%
64%
10
56
✓
FLA −4.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Wyoming
37%
63%
20
21
✓
WYO −4.5
–
–

Afternoon 6 games

Final
Utah@#21MichiganUpset
38%
62%
25
23
✗
MICH −4.1
–
–
Final
#5USC@Virginia
60%
40%
52
7
✓
USC −4.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Washington State
52%
48%
39
13
✓
OKST −1.3
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UAB
64%
36%
45
22
✓
TLSA −6.1
–
–
Final
TCU@New Mexico
48%
52%
26
3
✗
UNM −0.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Louisiana Tech
58%
42%
14
22
✗
MSST −3.8
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#25Auburn
19%
81%
0
34
✓
AUB −13.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Minnesota
32%
68%
27
31
✓
MINN −6.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
35%
65%
24
41
✓
MISS −5.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Nebraska
32%
68%
24
47
✓
NEB −6.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#15Texas
21%
79%
10
52
✓
TEX −11.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
25%
75%
21
51
✓
USM −10.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Texas A&MUpset
25%
75%
18
14
✗
TA&M −10.1
–
–
Final
FIU@#10Kansas
4.6%
95%
10
40
✓
KU −25.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Kansas State
17%
83%
6
45
✓
KSU −14.5
–
–
Final
#22Boston College@Kent State
69%
31%
21
0
✓
BC −8.2
–
–
Final
Illinoisvs#8Missouri
35%
65%
42
52
✓
MIZ −5.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Utah State@UNLV
35%
65%
17
27
✓
UNLV −5.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arizona
3.5%
96%
0
70
✓
ARIZ −27.9
–
–
Final
Washington@#9Oregon
25%
75%
10
44
✓
ORE −9.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
SMU@Rice
43%
57%
27
56
✓
RICE −2.3
–
–

Sun, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
42%
58%
27
2
✗
LOU −2.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Colorado StatevsColorado
41%
59%
17
38
✓
COLO −3.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Michigan State@California
39%
61%
31
38
✓
CAL −3.7
–
–
Final
Alabamavs#16ClemsonUpset
40%
60%
34
10
✗
CLEM −3.5
–
–

Mon, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Rutgers
33%
67%
24
7
✗
RUTG −6.4
–
–

Tue, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#23Tennessee@UCLAUpset
44%
56%
24
27
✓
UCLA −1.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Hofstra at UConn UConn −26.6 96%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −16.0 86%
Fri, Aug 29 · TBD South Dakota State at Iowa State Iowa State −19.1 90%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Northeastern at Ball State Ball State −29.2 97%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Central Michigan Central Michigan −34.3 99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at #14 Cincinnati Cincinnati −42.9 >99%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −33.5 98%
Thu, Aug 28 · 7:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −29.7 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Arkansas Arkansas −35.3 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 10:22 PM ET Northern Arizona at #18 Arizona State Arizona State −38.4 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 9:30 PM ET Cal Poly vs San Diego State San Diego State −22.1 93%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD UC Davis at San Jose State San Jose State −21.7 92%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at #2 USF USF −52.0 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:30 PM ET Georgia Southern at #13 Georgia Georgia −21.9 92%
Sun, Aug 31 · TBD Idaho State at #24 Boise State Boise State −41.7 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 11:00 AM ET Appalachian State at #3 LSU LSU −12.8 80%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:45 PM ET Delaware at Maryland Maryland −12.6 80%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET James Madison at Duke Duke −10.3 76%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET McNeese at North Carolina North Carolina −25.3 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #7 Ohio State Ohio State −38.7 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga at #4 Oklahoma Oklahoma −47.4 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at #19 Penn State Penn State −22.7 93%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Southern vs Houston Houston −21.0 92%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at #17 BYU BYU −33.2 98%
Sat, Aug 30 · 4:30 PM ET Illinois State at Marshall Marshall −25.3 95%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET Villanova at #1 West Virginia West Virginia −41.8 >99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 2:00 PM ET Southern Utah at Air Force Air Force −26.5 96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 6:06 PM ET South Carolina State at UCF UCF −29.9 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 12:05 PM ET Maine at Iowa Iowa −29.1 97%
Sat, Aug 30 · 3:30 PM ET Towson at Navy Navy −23.4 94%
Sat, Aug 30 · 9:05 PM ET Grambling at Nevada Nevada −27.5 96%
Sat, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at #20 Texas Tech Texas Tech −37.8 99%
Sat, Aug 30 · 11:00 AM ET Appalachian State at #3 LSU LSU −12.8 80%