The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 1

Wilder than 1% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Boston College29% chance · won 19-16
  • Runner-upMinnesota over Bowling Green30% chance · won 42-17
  • Runner-upNew Hampshire over Army34% chance · won 28-10

Upsets

Thu, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#20South Carolina@VanderbiltUpset
53%
47%
17
24
✗
SC −1.5
–
–

Fri, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@Ball State
42%
58%
23
35
✓
BALL −2.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#19Boston CollegeUpset
29%
71%
19
16
✗
BC −8.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Michigan
11%
89%
6
16
✓
MICH −18.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@#10Ohio State
12%
88%
14
26
✓
OSU −17.9
–
–
Final
UConn@Temple
62%
38%
12
9
✓
CONN −5.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@#24Wisconsin
14%
86%
14
51
✓
WIS −16.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan State
17%
83%
10
42
✓
MSU −14.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Iowa
6.2%
94%
0
42
✓
IOWA −23.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#16Auburn
25%
75%
13
27
✓
AUB −10.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nebraska
8.2%
92%
12
35
✓
NEB −21.2
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
BYU@Washington
59%
41%
28
27
✓
BYU −3.9
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#15Georgia
12%
88%
17
56
✓
UGA −17.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#21Wake Forest
20%
80%
28
30
✓
WAKE −12.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Syracuse
44%
56%
42
28
✗
SYR −1.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#7Oklahoma
28%
72%
26
52
✓
OU −8.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#12Penn State
23%
77%
14
45
✓
PSU −11.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wyoming
59%
41%
23
3
✓
AF −4.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@#4Oregon
3.0%
97%
24
66
✓
ORE −29.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Notre Dame
23%
77%
13
21
✓
ND −11.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida Atlantic
28%
72%
34
49
✓
FAU −8.3
–
–
Final
#8West Virginia@East CarolinaUpset
60%
40%
3
24
✗
WVU −4.5
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@New Mexico
50%
50%
28
22
✗
TA&M −0.4
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Pittsburgh
42%
58%
16
27
✓
PITT −2.5
–
–
Final
#25California@Washington State
68%
32%
66
3
✓
CAL −7.8
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Kent State@Iowa State
28%
72%
28
48
✓
ISU −8.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
51%
49%
24
20
✓
NU −1.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@#17Alabama
9.9%
90%
6
20
✓
ALA −19.6
–
–
Final
#11USF@UCF
66%
34%
31
24
✓
USF −6.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@Middle Tennessee
59%
41%
14
24
✗
MD −4.1
–
–
Final
ArkansasvsLouisiana-Monroe
71%
29%
28
27
✓
ARK −9.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
34%
66%
26
29
✓
WMU −5.8
–
–
Final
Houston@#14Oklahoma State
25%
75%
37
56
✓
OKST −9.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@North Texas
87%
13%
56
26
✓
TLSA −18.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#9Kansas
10%
90%
0
29
✓
KU −19.3
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Bowling Green
30%
70%
42
17
✗
BGSU −7.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@#23Utah
16%
84%
21
42
✓
UTAH −15.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Nevada
55%
44%
35
19
✓
TTU −2.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Toledo@Arizona
16%
84%
16
41
✓
ARIZ −14.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona State
32%
68%
17
41
✓
ASU −6.5
–
–
Final
#5Texas@UTEP
90%
10%
42
13
✓
TEX −20.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Miami (FL)@#1Florida
9.0%
91%
3
26
✓
FLA −20.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Memphis
53%
47%
42
35
✓
RICE −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Sacramento State vs Colorado State Colorado State −6.9 68%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:32 PM ET Eastern Washington at Colorado Colorado −43.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Florida State Florida State −36.3 99%
Sun, Sep 7 · 12:00 AM ET Weber State vs Hawaii Hawaii −39.0 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 5:00 PM ET Idaho State at Idaho Idaho −13.6 82%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Indiana Indiana −43.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Norfolk State at #13 Kentucky Kentucky −40.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Louisville Louisville −38.1 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at #6 Missouri Missouri −50.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET William & Mary at NC State NC State −26.3 96%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:30 PM ET The Citadel at Clemson Clemson −35.4 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State vs Baylor Baylor −17.8 88%
Sat, Sep 6 · 3:45 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −28.1 97%
Sat, Sep 6 · 1:30 PM ET Furman at #22 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Mississippi State Mississippi State −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 6 · 1:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Army Army −5.7 66%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −45.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Arkansas State Arkansas State −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 6:00 PM ET Western Kentucky at Eastern Kentucky Western Kentucky −26.2 95%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:08 PM ET Montana State at Kansas State Kansas State −37.2 99%
Sat, Sep 6 · 12:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Purdue Purdue −31.7 98%
Sun, Sep 7 · TBD Texas State at SMU Texas State −0.8 51%
Sat, Sep 6 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at #18 TCU TCU −33.9 99%