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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2008

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 19

Wilder than 19% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockMarshall over Southern Miss16% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upBoise State over Oregon18% chance · won 37-32
  • Runner-upNC State over East Carolina20% chance · won 30-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
West Virginia@Colorado
57%
43%
14
17
✗
WVU −2.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Kansas State@Louisville
63%
37%
29
38
✗
KSU −5.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Mississippi State@Georgia Tech
23%
77%
7
38
✓
GT −12.4
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Minnesota
30%
70%
3
37
✓
MINN −8.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@NC StateUpset
80%
20%
24
30
✗
ECU −14.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Ohio State
39%
61%
10
28
✓
OSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Temple@#5Penn State
6.5%
94%
3
45
✓
PSU −25.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Pittsburgh
55%
45%
20
21
✗
IOWA −2.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Purdue
22%
78%
25
32
✓
PUR −12.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northwestern
29%
71%
8
16
✓
NU −9.1
–
–
Final
#15Alabama@Arkansas
71%
29%
49
14
✓
ALA −9.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Boston College
25%
75%
7
34
✓
BC −11.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Maryland
11%
89%
24
51
✓
MD −20.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Army
68%
32%
22
3
✓
AKR −7.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#9Missouri
9.9%
90%
21
42
✓
MIZ −21.4
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Wyoming@#16BYU
12%
88%
0
44
✓
BYU −19.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Tulane
36%
64%
10
24
✓
TULN −6.2
–
–
Final
Arizona@UCLA
57%
43%
31
10
✓
ARIZ −2.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Colorado State
64%
36%
25
28
✗
HOU −5.7
–
–
Final
Notre Dame@#25Michigan State
26%
74%
7
23
✓
MSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@North Carolina
50%
50%
20
17
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Texas A&M
38%
62%
41
23
✗
TA&M −5.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Navy
35%
65%
21
23
✓
NAVY −6.4
–
–
Final
Boise State@#6OregonUpset
18%
82%
37
32
✗
ORE −15.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Southern MissUpset
16%
84%
34
27
✗
USM −16.5
–
–
Final
#2Florida@Tennessee
68%
32%
30
6
✓
FLA −7.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@Utah State
11%
89%
17
42
✓
USU −20.6
–
–
Final
#12Utah@#24Air Force
50%
50%
30
23
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#14USF@FIU
96%
3.8%
17
9
✓
USF −29.4
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
#22Wake Forest@Florida State
53%
47%
12
3
✓
WAKE −1.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
50%
50%
42
20
✓
IU −0.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
60%
40%
23
17
✓
VAN −4.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#7Texas
7.9%
92%
10
52
✓
TEX −23.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Louisiana
37%
63%
27
44
✓
UL −5.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
42%
58%
14
31
✓
ARST −3.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Tulsa
22%
78%
14
56
✓
TLSA −13.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
14%
86%
20
45
✓
CIN −18.0
–
–
Final
#4LSU@#18Auburn
59%
41%
26
21
✓
LSU −3.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Toledo
64%
36%
55
54
✓
FRES −5.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
28%
72%
10
23
✓
STAN −9.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@UNLV
43%
57%
31
34
✓
UNLV −3.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
40%
60%
34
33
✗
UTEP −4.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Baylor@UConn
16%
84%
28
31
✓
CONN −17.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#8Georgia@Arizona State
66%
34%
27
10
✓
UGA −6.9
–
–
Final
#13TCU@SMU
90%
10%
48
7
✓
TCU −21.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 20 · 4:00 PM ET Alabama State vs UAB UAB −6.4 65%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −39.8 99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 3:30 PM ET Northeastern at Syracuse Syracuse −23.0 92%
Sat, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Clemson Clemson −36.3 98%
Sun, Sep 21 · TBD Nicholls at Memphis Memphis −23.6 92%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Portland State at Washington State Washington State −17.9 86%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at #10 Kansas Kansas −30.1 96%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 3:00 PM ET Indiana State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −46.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET Wofford at South Carolina South Carolina −35.8 98%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:00 PM ET UMass at #20 Texas Tech Texas Tech −13.2 78%
Sat, Sep 20 · 7:06 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Western Michigan Western Michigan −44.3 >99%