The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 28 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 10.2 expected

  • Biggest shockLSU over Georgia Tech22% chance · won 28-14
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Florida State27% chance · won 13-2
  • Runner-upSouth Carolina over Ohio State31% chance · won 24-7

Upsets

Sat, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Auburnvs#6Florida
22%
78%
6
28
✓
FLA −11.8
–
–
Final
Western MichiganvsMarshall
68%
32%
14
19
✗
WMU −7.8
–
–
Final
#7Kansas Statevs#3Oklahoma
40%
60%
24
27
✓
OU −3.7
–
–

Wed, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10TCUvs#22Southern Miss
63%
37%
21
28
✗
TCU −5.7
–
–

Thu, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
ArkansasvsUNLV
57%
43%
14
31
✗
ARK −3.2
–
–

Sun, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginiavs#23Georgia
26%
74%
14
37
✓
UGA −9.7
–
–

Mon, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Arizona StatevsBoston College
44%
56%
17
31
✓
BC −1.9
–
–

Wed, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Texas TechvsEast Carolina
38%
62%
27
40
✓
ECU −4.6
–
–
Final
CincinnativsMarshall
49%
51%
14
25
✓
CIN −0.1
–
–

Thu, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
UTEPvsBoise State
38%
62%
23
38
✓
BOIS −4.4
–
–
Final
PittsburghvsIowa State
55%
45%
29
37
✗
PITT −2.3
–
–
Final
MinnesotavsNC State
57%
43%
30
38
✗
MINN −3.4
–
–
Final
Ole MissvsWest Virginia
54%
46%
38
49
✗
MISS −2.0
–
–

Fri, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
LouisvillevsColorado State
53%
47%
17
22
✗
LOU −1.5
–
–
Final
LSUvs#11Georgia TechUpset
22%
78%
28
14
✗
GT −11.8
–
–
Final
#9Texasvs#24Oregon
67%
33%
30
35
✗
TEX −7.4
–
–
Final
UCLAvs#20Wisconsin
29%
72%
20
21
✓
WIS −8.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northwesternvs#4Nebraska
18%
82%
17
66
✓
NEB −14.5
–
–

Sun, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Fresno StatevsAir Force
50%
50%
34
37
✗
FRES −0.6
–
–
Final
#14Texas A&Mvs#21Mississippi State
54%
46%
41
43
✗
TA&M −2.1
–
–

Mon, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
#16Tennesseevs#7Kansas State
33%
67%
21
35
✓
KSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Auburnvs#8Michigan
26%
74%
28
31
✓
MICH −10.0
–
–
Final
#19Notre Damevs#18Oregon State
49%
51%
9
41
✓
PK
–
–
Final
#12Ohio StatevsSouth CarolinaUpset
69%
31%
7
24
✗
OSU −8.5
–
–
Final
#13Clemsonvs#5Virginia Tech
30%
70%
20
41
✓
VT −7.8
–
–
Final
#15Purduevs#17Washington
50%
50%
24
34
✓
PUR −0.3
–
–

Tue, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#6Floridavs#2Miami (FL)
29%
71%
20
37
✓
MIA −8.5
–
–

Wed, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#1Florida Statevs#3Oklahoma
72%
28%
2
13
✗
FSU −10.0
–
–