The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 21

Wilder than 21% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 13.6 expected

  • Biggest shockMinnesota over Ohio State16% chance · won 29-17
  • Runner-upKansas over Missouri29% chance · won 38-17
  • Runner-upOklahoma over Kansas State30% chance · won 41-31

Upsets

Thu, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
West Virginia@#4Virginia Tech
6.0%
94%
20
48
✓
VT −24.6
–
–

Sat, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Air Force@Wyoming
79%
21%
51
34
✓
AF −13.1
–
–
Final
#24Ole Miss@AlabamaUpset
47%
53%
7
45
✓
ALA −0.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@UAB
53%
47%
9
13
✗
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15Arizona
11%
89%
47
53
✓
ARIZ −19.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
40%
60%
14
33
✓
BALL −3.5
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
39%
61%
13
20
✓
BC −4.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@California
59%
41%
38
46
✗
UCLA −4.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@#10Clemson
5.9%
94%
14
35
✓
CLEM −24.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
28%
72%
19
20
✓
CSU −8.9
–
–
Final
Army@East Carolina
4.0%
96%
21
42
✓
ECU −27.6
–
–
Final
#19Auburn@#9Florida
25%
75%
7
38
✓
FLA −10.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#1Florida State
0.1%
>99%
14
63
✓
FSU −50.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno State
7.6%
92%
21
58
✓
FRES −22.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#14Georgia
7.0%
93%
19
29
✓
UGA −23.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#22Georgia Tech
5.4%
95%
20
52
✓
GT −25.4
–
–
Final
SMU@Hawaii
56%
44%
15
30
✗
SMU −2.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Idaho
39%
61%
25
42
✓
Idaho −4.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
15%
85%
0
31
✓
ILL −16.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma State
57%
43%
33
26
✓
ISU −3.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
30%
70%
38
17
✗
MIZ −8.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@LSU
40%
60%
0
34
✓
LSU −3.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
17%
83%
14
48
✓
LT −14.7
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
19%
81%
24
38
✓
LOU −13.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
14%
86%
10
24
✓
M-OH −17.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#13Michigan
13%
87%
0
58
✓
MICH −17.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Middle Tennessee
12%
88%
0
28
✓
MTSU −18.0
–
–
Final
#25Minnesota@#7Ohio StateUpset
16%
84%
29
17
✗
OSU −15.2
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Texas Tech
84%
16%
56
3
✓
NEB −16.2
–
–
Final
Tulsa@New Mexico State
30%
70%
28
42
✓
NMSU −8.0
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
54%
46%
38
20
✓
NCSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
39%
61%
52
35
✗
AKR −3.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Notre Dame
5.0%
95%
14
45
✓
ND −26.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
80%
20%
44
7
✓
OHIO −13.9
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma@#3Kansas State
30%
70%
41
31
✗
KSU −8.0
–
–
Final
#16Oregon@USC
55%
44%
28
17
✓
ORE −2.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
30%
70%
6
38
✓
ORST −7.8
–
–
Final
#17Purdue@Northwestern
50%
50%
41
28
✓
PUR −0.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@South Carolina
39%
61%
7
27
✓
SC −3.9
–
–
Final
#8Southern Miss@Tulane
89%
11%
56
24
✓
USM −20.4
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
57%
43%
48
14
✓
TEM −3.5
–
–
Final
#21Texas@Colorado
49%
51%
28
14
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#20Texas A&M@Baylor
88%
12%
24
0
✓
TA&M −19.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@San Jose State
38%
62%
47
30
✗
SJSU −4.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Toledo
36%
64%
0
42
✓
TOL −5.2
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
44%
56%
21
7
✗
SDSU −2.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@North Texas
38%
62%
17
12
✗
UNT −4.5
–
–
Final
#23Washington@Arizona State
51%
49%
21
15
✓
WASH −0.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Michigan State
47%
53%
17
10
✗
MSU −0.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD Eastern Washington at Boise State Boise State −42.6 >99%
Sat, Oct 14 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at UCF UCF −22.1 92%