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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 53

Wilder than 53% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockStephen F. Austin over Louisiana Tech3.7% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upYoungstown State over Kent State18% chance · won 26-20
  • Runner-upWashington State over Utah21% chance · won 38-21

Upsets

Thu, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#19Mississippi State@BYU
57%
42%
44
28
✓
MSST −3.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
UCF@Akron
47%
53%
24
35
✓
AKR −1.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Arizona
20%
80%
3
17
✓
ARIZ −13.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Arizona State
47%
53%
10
13
✓
ASU −1.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@#18Arkansas
21%
79%
31
38
✓
ARK −13.3
–
–
Final
LSU@Auburn
32%
68%
17
34
✓
AUB −8.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#20Clemson
14%
86%
7
55
✓
CLEM −17.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
77%
23%
24
21
✓
CONN −12.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
13%
87%
17
37
✓
ECU −19.0
–
–
Final
#14Florida@#10Tennessee
39%
61%
27
23
✗
TENN −4.8
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#2Florida State
11%
89%
14
63
✓
FSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Georgia Tech
16%
84%
13
40
✓
GT −16.4
–
–
Final
Army@Houston
20%
80%
30
31
✓
HOU −14.0
–
–
Final
California@#12Illinois
15%
85%
15
17
✓
ILL −17.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
58%
42%
24
14
✓
ISU −3.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Kansas
39%
61%
20
23
✓
KU −4.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@#4Kansas State
0.4%
>99%
0
76
✓
KSU −44.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
27%
73%
34
41
✓
UK −10.4
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
68%
32%
19
17
✓
MEM −7.5
–
–
Final
#11Michigan State@Missouri
85%
15%
13
10
✓
MSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Baylor
72%
28%
34
9
✓
MINN −9.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
66%
34%
12
7
✓
MISS −7.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@UNLV
35%
65%
0
38
✓
UNLV −6.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
34%
66%
16
13
✗
NMSU −6.9
–
–
Final
SMU@NC State
27%
73%
0
41
✓
NCSU −10.3
–
–
Final
#8Purdue@#23Notre Dame
52%
48%
21
23
✗
PUR −0.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#9Ohio State
19%
81%
16
27
✓
OSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@#22Oregon
1.3%
99%
13
42
✓
ORE −36.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Pittsburgh
50%
50%
0
12
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@South Carolina
16%
84%
6
41
✓
SC −16.5
–
–
Final
#24Southern Miss@#25Alabama
42%
58%
21
0
✗
ALA −3.4
–
–
Final
#15Texas@StanfordUpset
65%
35%
24
27
✗
TEX −6.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Temple
24%
76%
14
31
✓
TEM −11.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@#16Texas A&M
11%
89%
17
45
✓
TA&M −20.6
–
–
Final
Northwestern@TCU
25%
75%
14
41
✓
TCU −11.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas Tech
5.2%
95%
0
26
✓
TTU −27.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@RiceUpset
21%
79%
23
16
✗
RICE −13.3
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@UCLAUpset
71%
29%
20
23
✗
MICH −9.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
78%
22%
26
10
✓
UVA −12.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#1Virginia Tech
2.2%
98%
0
49
✓
VT −33.6
–
–
Final
Washington@Colorado
42%
58%
17
14
✗
COLO −3.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@UtahUpset
21%
79%
38
21
✗
UTAH −13.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@West Virginia
27%
73%
17
30
✓
WVU −10.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#13Wisconsin
13%
87%
25
28
✓
WIS −18.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Wyoming
28%
72%
10
31
✓
WYO −9.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −19.8 88%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Murray State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −12.8 78%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Ohio Ohio −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Texas State at Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −22.0 91%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Southern Utah at San Jose State San Jose State −27.7 95%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD James Madison at USF USF −0.3 50%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −29.7 96%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Toledo Toledo −32.4 97%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Indiana State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −42.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · TBD Youngstown State at Kent State Kent State −15.2 82%