The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3

Chaos 8

Wilder than 8% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockBYU over Virginia29% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upSam Houston over Louisiana29% chance · won 21-14
  • Runner-upTemple over Navy30% chance · won 17-6

Upsets

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Arizona State@San Diego State
38%
62%
10
7
✗
SDSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Auburn
36%
64%
21
35
✓
AUB −5.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@North Texas
43%
57%
20
7
✗
UNT −2.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Northwestern
36%
64%
17
35
✓
NU −5.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#7Wisconsin
17%
83%
7
19
✓
WIS −14.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 39 games

Final
Arizona@#23UtahUpset
32%
68%
17
3
✗
UTAH −6.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@New Mexico
78%
22%
31
14
✓
BOIS −12.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Virginia
29%
71%
38
35
✗
UVA −8.1
–
–
Final
#25Colorado@Colorado StateUpset
43%
57%
24
28
✓
CSU −2.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Duke
57%
42%
38
0
✓
ECU −3.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Eastern Michigan
25%
75%
25
32
✓
EMU −10.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@#9Florida
7.3%
93%
19
40
✓
FLA −22.2
–
–
Final
UCF@#16Georgia Tech
22%
78%
17
21
✓
GT −11.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Illinois
12%
88%
6
35
✓
ILL −17.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Iowa State
34%
66%
15
25
✓
ISU −5.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#5Kansas State
17%
83%
10
54
✓
KSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Louisville
39%
61%
34
40
✓
LOU −3.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Vanderbilt
45%
55%
33
30
✗
VAN −1.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#8Michigan
15%
85%
7
42
✓
MICH −15.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#22Minnesota
9.2%
91%
10
47
✓
MINN −20.2
–
–
Final
Tulane@Ole Miss
24%
76%
20
49
✓
MISS −10.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
48%
52%
17
3
✗
MEM −0.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#3Nebraska
5.1%
95%
13
49
✓
NEB −25.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@North Carolina
28%
72%
9
30
✓
UNC −8.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@NC State
26%
74%
31
38
✓
NCSU −9.5
–
–
Final
#18Texas A&M@Notre DameUpset
45%
55%
10
24
✓
ND −1.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#24Ohio State
32%
68%
10
43
✓
OSU −6.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@#17Oklahoma
19%
81%
14
55
✓
OU −13.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@#21Oregon
16%
84%
7
36
✓
ORE −14.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Pittsburgh
20%
80%
7
30
✓
PITT −12.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#15Purdue
13%
87%
0
48
✓
PUR −17.1
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
44%
56%
27
30
✓
RICE −2.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@South Carolina
44%
56%
0
31
✓
SC −1.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@SMU
44%
56%
17
31
✓
SMU −1.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
56%
44%
24
10
✓
STAN −2.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Syracuse
6.9%
93%
7
63
✓
SYR −22.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
30%
70%
17
6
✗
NAVY −7.4
–
–
Final
#20Southern Miss@#6Tennessee
30%
70%
16
19
✓
TENN −7.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Texas Tech
37%
63%
16
38
✓
TTU −4.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Penn State
31%
69%
24
6
✗
PSU −7.3
–
–
Final
#11Alabama@UCLAUpset
58%
42%
24
35
✗
ALA −3.5
–
–
Final
Akron@#4Virginia Tech
11%
89%
23
52
✓
VT −18.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington
9.5%
90%
20
44
✓
WASH −20.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@West Virginia
35%
65%
14
34
✓
WVU −5.4
–
–

Mon, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Army@Cincinnati
33%
67%
17
23
✓
CIN −6.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −3.2 59%
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD Southeast Missouri State at #12 Marshall Marshall −31.5 98%
Thu, Aug 31 · TBD McNeese at #2 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −38.2 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Cal State Northridge at Air Force Air Force −38.0 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Missouri State at #19 Arkansas Arkansas −22.4 93%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD The Citadel at Clemson Clemson −40.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Georgia Southern at Georgia Georgia −16.4 86%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Western Carolina at LSU LSU −31.4 98%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Western Illinois at Missouri Missouri −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Eastern Washington at Oregon State Oregon State −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Villanova at Rutgers Rutgers −19.4 90%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Sam Houston at Louisiana Louisiana −7.8 71%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD Jacksonville State at USF USF −4.4 62%