The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 59

Wilder than 59% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.6 expected

  • Biggest shockCentral Michigan over Western Michigan2.8% chance · won 21-17
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Northern Illinois19% chance · won 39-32
  • Runner-upWashington State over USC26% chance · won 33-27

Upsets

Thu, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Virginia@#18Georgia Tech
17%
83%
0
35
✓
GT −14.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 53 games

Final
Colorado State@Air Force
51%
49%
40
44
✗
CSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
4.1%
96%
14
49
✓
AKR −27.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arkansas State
38%
62%
28
53
✓
ARST −4.5
–
–
Final
#19Georgia@AuburnUpset
49%
51%
26
29
✓
UGA −0.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
9.6%
90%
38
66
✓
BOIS −20.4
–
–
Final
#25Western Michigan@Central MichiganUpset
97%
2.8%
17
21
✗
WMU −31.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Memphis
41%
59%
13
10
✗
MEM −3.0
–
–
Final
Houston@East Carolina
10%
90%
20
62
✓
ECU −20.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern MichiganUpset
81%
19%
32
39
✗
NIU −14.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#7Florida
14%
86%
21
41
✓
FLA −17.1
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@Wake Forest
>99%
0.4%
35
6
✓
FSU −43.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
34%
66%
17
37
✓
HAW −5.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Idaho
52%
48%
41
44
✗
NMSU −1.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
73%
27%
17
27
✗
NU −10.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Colorado
30%
70%
35
27
✗
COLO −8.0
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@#5Kansas State
48%
52%
28
29
✓
KSU −0.5
–
–
Final
LSU@Ole Miss
35%
65%
20
9
✗
MISS −5.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Louisiana-Monroe
87%
13%
42
19
✓
LT −18.4
–
–
Final
Army@Louisville
5.1%
95%
17
38
✓
LOU −25.8
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Marshall
28%
72%
31
51
✓
MRSH −8.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#3Miami (FL)
6.2%
94%
7
35
✓
MIA −24.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@#9Michigan
13%
87%
11
33
✓
MICH −17.4
–
–
Final
#12Purdue@Michigan StateUpset
66%
34%
10
30
✗
PUR −6.8
–
–
Final
USF@Middle Tennessee
33%
67%
9
45
✓
MTSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Alabama@#13Mississippi State
22%
78%
7
29
✓
MSST −11.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Baylor
54%
46%
47
22
✓
MIZ −2.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
30%
70%
14
18
✓
UNLV −7.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
44%
56%
10
13
✓
UNC −1.8
–
–
Final
Duke@NC State
5.0%
95%
31
35
✓
NCSU −26.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@#23Notre Dame
31%
69%
16
28
✓
ND −7.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
72%
28%
23
21
✓
OHIO −9.7
–
–
Final
#8Ohio State@Illinois
66%
34%
24
21
✓
OSU −6.8
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@#10Texas A&M
65%
35%
35
31
✓
OU −6.6
–
–
Final
California@#17Oregon
14%
86%
17
25
✓
ORE −16.7
–
–
Final
#24Oregon State@Arizona
40%
60%
33
9
✗
ARIZ −3.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
45%
55%
20
24
✓
SMU −1.4
–
–
Final
#14Southern Miss@UAB
78%
22%
33
30
✓
USM −12.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Stanford
48%
52%
7
29
✓
STAN −0.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Temple
67%
33%
31
12
✓
SYR −7.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#20Tennessee
19%
80%
20
63
✓
TENN −13.3
–
–
Final
#11Texas@Kansas
81%
19%
51
16
✓
TEX −14.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#16TCU
18%
82%
7
24
✓
TCU −14.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
23%
77%
0
58
✓
TTU −11.3
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
18%
82%
21
38
✓
UTEP −14.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Toledo
2.0%
98%
3
31
✓
TOL −32.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
20%
80%
38
50
✓
TULN −12.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
80%
20%
34
0
✓
UTAH −13.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
29%
71%
24
20
✗
UK −8.2
–
–
Final
#6Virginia Tech@UCF
86%
14%
44
21
✓
VT −17.7
–
–
Final
UCLA@#22Washington
23%
77%
28
35
✓
WASH −11.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@USC
26%
74%
33
27
✗
USC −9.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Rutgers
78%
22%
31
24
✓
WVU −12.5
–
–
Final
#21Wisconsin@Indiana
68%
32%
43
22
✓
WIS −7.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Jacksonville State at Louisiana Louisiana −3.0 59%
Sat, Nov 11 · TBD Rhode Island at UConn UConn −3.8 61%