The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 55

Wilder than 55% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.3 expected

  • Biggest shockBall State over Miami (OH)2.8% chance · won 15-10
  • Runner-upColorado over Texas A&M20% chance · won 26-19
  • Runner-upWestern Michigan over Marshall25% chance · won 30-10

Upsets

Thu, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Fresno State@Rice
66%
34%
27
24
✓
FRES −6.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@MarshallUpset
25%
75%
30
10
✗
MRSH −11.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@BYU
12%
88%
14
38
✓
BYU −19.5
–
–

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 50 games

Final
Navy@Air Force
13%
87%
13
27
✓
AF −18.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
67%
33%
27
21
✓
AKR −7.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@USC
44%
56%
31
15
✗
USC −2.4
–
–
Final
California@Arizona State
26%
74%
10
30
✓
ASU −10.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas
1.1%
99%
6
52
✓
ARK −38.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)Upset
2.8%
97%
15
10
✗
M-OH −31.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Boston College
3.6%
96%
3
55
✓
BC −29.9
–
–
Final
Houston@Cincinnati
30%
70%
31
48
✓
CIN −8.8
–
–
Final
NC State@#8Clemson
16%
84%
27
34
✓
CLEM −16.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@#15Texas A&MUpset
20%
80%
26
19
✗
TA&M −14.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
11%
89%
14
17
✓
CSU −20.3
–
–
Final
LSU@#12Florida
15%
85%
9
41
✓
FLA −17.2
–
–
Final
#18Tennessee@#19Georgia
39%
61%
10
21
✓
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
73%
27%
16
21
✗
MSU −10.0
–
–
Final
#4Kansas State@Kansas
90%
9.8%
52
13
✓
KSU −21.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
33%
67%
24
21
✗
CMU −7.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@UAB
50%
50%
38
17
✓
LOU −0.1
–
–
Final
#21East Carolina@MemphisUpset
66%
34%
10
17
✗
ECU −6.9
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@#2Miami (FL)
48%
52%
24
27
✓
MIA −1.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Middle Tennessee
59%
41%
21
49
✗
LT −3.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@#25Minnesota
24%
76%
16
25
✓
MINN −11.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
4.5%
96%
10
35
✓
MISS −28.2
–
–
Final
#20Auburn@#14Mississippi State
35%
65%
10
17
✓
MSST −6.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Missouri
48%
52%
10
24
✓
MIZ −1.1
–
–
Final
#5Nebraska@Iowa State
74%
26%
49
27
✓
NEB −10.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
16%
84%
7
38
✓
UNLV −16.9
–
–
Final
Army@New Mexico State
41%
59%
23
42
✓
NMSU −4.0
–
–
Final
UCF@Northern Illinois
48%
52%
20
40
✓
NIU −0.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
31%
69%
33
52
✓
NU −8.2
–
–
Final
Stanford@Notre Dame
20%
80%
14
20
✓
ND −13.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Ohio
3.9%
96%
20
42
✓
OHIO −29.3
–
–
Final
#6Ohio State@#24Wisconsin
60%
40%
23
7
✓
OSU −4.1
–
–
Final
#11Texas@#10Oklahoma
37%
63%
14
63
✓
OU −5.7
–
–
Final
#13Michigan@#17Purdue
42%
58%
31
32
✓
PUR −3.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
44%
56%
34
0
✗
WYO −2.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@SMU
56%
44%
35
10
✓
SJSU −2.4
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
52%
48%
20
17
✓
SC −0.6
–
–
Final
USF@#7Southern Miss
2.0%
98%
7
41
✓
USM −34.0
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Syracuse
31%
69%
17
24
✓
SYR −8.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#9TCU
0.3%
>99%
21
41
✓
TCU −44.8
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
17%
83%
0
28
✓
TTU −15.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Tulsa
49%
51%
40
7
✗
TLSA −0.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
80%
20%
42
14
✓
TOL −13.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisiana
85%
15%
38
37
✓
TULN −16.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
49%
51%
17
10
✗
WAKE −0.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Virginia
26%
74%
23
31
✓
UVA −10.8
–
–
Final
Temple@#3Virginia Tech
2.0%
98%
13
35
✓
VT −34.3
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#23Washington
24%
76%
30
33
✓
WASH −11.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Washington State
60%
40%
35
42
✗
BOIS −4.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@West Virginia
7.3%
93%
16
28
✓
WVU −24.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Oct 5 · TBD Samford at North Texas North Texas −8.5 69%