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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 59

Wilder than 59% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa over Penn State13% chance · won 26-23
  • Runner-upLouisville over Southern Miss13% chance · won 49-28
  • Runner-upNorth Carolina over Pittsburgh16% chance · won 20-17

Upsets

Thu, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BYU@Colorado State
24%
76%
21
45
✓
CSU −10.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 50 games

Final
Air Force@Army
73%
27%
41
27
✓
AF −10.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@Arkansas State
85%
15%
42
14
✓
BOIS −16.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Boston College
18%
82%
3
31
✓
BC −14.0
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
52%
48%
17
20
✗
KENT −1.4
–
–
Final
UCF@Louisiana Tech
59%
41%
20
16
✓
UCF −4.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Cincinnati
35%
65%
21
33
✓
CIN −5.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Missouri
69%
31%
28
18
✓
COLO −8.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
31%
69%
15
31
✓
EMU −7.5
–
–
Final
#6Florida@Vanderbilt
91%
8.7%
43
20
✓
FLA −22.2
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@#1Florida State
11%
89%
7
54
✓
FSU −19.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
4.1%
96%
27
45
✓
FRES −27.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@North Texas
48%
52%
16
14
✗
UNT −0.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
21%
78%
35
42
✓
ILL −12.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Penn StateUpset
13%
87%
26
23
✗
PSU −17.8
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#7Kansas State
9.0%
91%
10
56
✓
KSU −21.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
48%
52%
21
18
✗
ULM −0.4
–
–
Final
Alabama@LSU
46%
54%
28
30
✓
LSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@#8Southern MissUpset
13%
87%
49
28
✗
USM −17.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Bowling Green
71%
29%
20
13
✓
MRSH −9.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Maryland
53%
47%
28
35
✗
NCSU −1.9
–
–
Final
#5Virginia Tech@#4Miami (FL)
35%
65%
21
41
✓
MIA −5.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
51%
49%
24
27
✗
OHIO −0.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UConn
57%
43%
66
10
✓
MTSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Arkansas
37%
63%
38
24
✗
ARK −4.8
–
–
Final
#16Mississippi State@Kentucky
75%
25%
35
17
✓
MSST −11.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@#3Nebraska
2.4%
98%
17
56
✓
NEB −31.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@PittsburghUpset
16%
84%
20
17
✗
PITT −15.2
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@NorthwesternUpset
63%
37%
51
54
✗
MICH −5.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#9Ohio State
12%
88%
13
27
✓
OSU −18.7
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Baylor
98%
1.5%
56
7
✓
OU −35.2
–
–
Final
#17Oregon@Washington State
75%
25%
27
24
✓
ORE −11.3
–
–
Final
#23Oregon State@California
64%
36%
38
32
✓
ORST −6.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
24%
76%
14
43
✓
RICE −10.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@New Mexico
35%
65%
17
16
✗
UNM −5.8
–
–
Final
#14TCU@San Jose StateUpset
78%
22%
24
27
✗
TCU −12.7
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona State
31%
69%
44
38
✗
ASU −7.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@West Virginia
52%
48%
31
27
✓
SYR −1.2
–
–
Final
#18Tennessee@Memphis
72%
28%
19
17
✓
TENN −9.7
–
–
Final
#15Texas@Texas Tech
68%
32%
29
17
✓
TEX −7.9
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@Oklahoma State
86%
14%
21
16
✓
TA&M −18.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@Nevada
88%
12%
45
22
✓
UTEP −19.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
60%
40%
38
24
✓
TOL −4.4
–
–
Final
Houston@Tulane
43%
57%
23
41
✓
TULN −2.4
–
–
Final
Stanford@UCLA
26%
74%
35
37
✓
UCLA −9.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah
44%
56%
16
38
✓
UTAH −2.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
26%
74%
44
37
✗
NMSU −9.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
30%
70%
26
28
✓
WAKE −8.1
–
–
Final
#25Arizona@#22Washington
35%
65%
32
35
✓
WASH −5.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
91%
9.2%
42
3
✓
WMU −21.6
–
–
Final
#24Minnesota@WisconsinUpset
39%
61%
20
41
✓
WIS −3.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · TBD Western Kentucky at USF USF −10.7 76%