The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 82

Wilder than 82% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 12.6 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Washington State6.6% chance · won 38-34
  • Runner-upNorthwestern State over Louisiana9.6% chance · won 23-21
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Wisconsin15% chance · won 47-44

Upsets

Thu, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Georgia Tech@NC State
51%
49%
23
30
✗
GT −0.2
–
–

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
Air Force@Utah
54%
46%
23
14
✓
AF −1.8
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
30%
70%
23
20
✗
OHIO −8.8
–
–
Final
UAB@LSUUpset
21%
79%
13
10
✗
LSU −13.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Arizona State
15%
85%
20
44
✓
ASU −17.1
–
–
Final
Alabama@#24Arkansas
29%
71%
21
28
✓
ARK −9.3
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#22Auburn
6.7%
93%
14
31
✓
AUB −24.9
–
–
Final
USF@Baylor
43%
57%
13
28
✓
BAY −2.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@Central Michigan
75%
25%
47
10
✓
BOIS −11.0
–
–
Final
Navy@Boston College
17%
83%
7
48
✓
BC −16.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@BYU
22%
78%
7
10
✓
BYU −12.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@BuffaloUpset
78%
22%
17
20
✗
BGSU −12.8
–
–
Final
#10Clemson@Virginia
67%
33%
31
10
✓
CLEM −7.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@East Carolina
37%
63%
17
34
✓
ECU −5.8
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#9Florida
18%
82%
31
59
✓
FLA −15.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@#1Florida State
7.8%
92%
0
31
✓
FSU −23.6
–
–
Final
California@Fresno State
44%
56%
3
17
✓
FRES −2.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia
13%
87%
0
37
✓
UGA −19.0
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington StateUpset
6.6%
93%
38
34
✗
WSU −25.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Indiana
48%
52%
6
42
✓
IU −1.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@#4Kansas State
0.5%
>99%
10
55
✓
KSU −42.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Maryland
8.2%
92%
27
45
✓
MD −23.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Army
64%
36%
26
16
✓
MEM −6.0
–
–
Final
#5Miami (FL)@West Virginia
58%
42%
47
10
✓
MIA −3.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
4.7%
95%
14
45
✓
M-OH −27.9
–
–
Final
#7Michigan@#18Illinois
48%
52%
35
31
✗
ILL −1.0
–
–
Final
#20Notre Dame@#17Michigan State
38%
62%
21
27
✓
MSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@#3Nebraska
2.5%
98%
13
42
✓
NEB −32.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@WyomingUpset
18%
82%
35
28
✗
WYO −15.5
–
–
Final
#23Marshall@North CarolinaUpset
61%
39%
15
20
✗
MRSH −4.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#19WisconsinUpset
15%
85%
47
44
✗
WIS −17.4
–
–
Final
Penn State@#8Ohio State
20%
80%
6
45
✓
OSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Rice@#6Oklahoma
4.9%
95%
14
42
✓
OU −27.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon
29%
71%
10
29
✓
ORE −9.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Oregon State
34%
66%
3
35
✓
ORST −6.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
11%
89%
17
29
✓
PITT −20.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#12Purdue
27%
73%
24
38
✓
PUR −10.3
–
–
Final
#14Mississippi State@South CarolinaUpset
60%
40%
19
23
✗
MSST −4.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#21USC
12%
88%
24
34
✓
USC −19.9
–
–
Final
#11Southern Miss@Oklahoma State
64%
36%
28
6
✓
USM −6.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Temple
17%
83%
40
49
✓
TEM −16.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#15Tennessee
0.6%
99%
3
70
✓
TENN −41.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#25Texas
13%
87%
0
48
✓
TEX −18.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#16TCU
6.4%
94%
3
52
✓
TCU −25.3
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
17%
83%
7
39
✓
UTEP −16.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
45%
55%
29
17
✗
SMU −2.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Tulsa
40%
60%
10
22
✓
TLSA −4.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Vanderbilt
16%
84%
7
26
✓
VAN −16.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
44%
56%
14
21
✓
WMU −2.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD William & Mary at UCF UCF −23.9 92%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Southern Illinois at Kansas Kansas −19.4 88%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Northern Arizona at New Mexico New Mexico −21.7 90%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Northeastern at UConn UConn −12.9 78%
Sat, Sep 23 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Louisiana −21.7 90%