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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 99

Wilder than 99% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockWestern Illinois over Ball State1.4% chance · won 24-14
  • Runner-upPortland State over Hawaii1.4% chance · won 45-20
  • Runner-upSan Jose State over Stanford4.6% chance · won 40-27

Upsets

Thu, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#5Virginia Tech@#14East Carolina
58%
42%
45
28
✓
VT −3.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
BYU@Air Force
44%
56%
23
31
✓
AF −1.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Alabama
16%
84%
10
28
✓
ALA −14.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@#19Ole MissUpset
27%
73%
35
27
✗
MISS −8.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Army
45%
55%
55
17
✗
ARMY −1.3
–
–
Final
Utah@California
48%
52%
21
24
✓
CAL −0.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
61%
39%
7
17
✗
AKR −4.7
–
–
Final
#22Syracuse@CincinnatiUpset
66%
34%
10
12
✗
SYR −6.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Clemson
21%
79%
9
62
✓
CLEM −11.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@#13Florida
2.0%
98%
0
55
✓
FLA −31.7
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@Georgia Tech
76%
24%
26
21
✓
FSU −11.1
–
–
Final
#24Illinois@San Diego State
57%
43%
49
13
✓
ILL −3.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Iowa State
21%
79%
22
37
✓
ISU −11.9
–
–
Final
USF@Kentucky
11%
89%
9
27
✓
UK −18.9
–
–
Final
Houston@LSU
38%
62%
13
28
✓
LSU −4.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Maryland
33%
67%
10
17
✓
MD −6.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Memphis
7.5%
92%
0
28
✓
MEM −21.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
67%
33%
34
17
✓
M-OH −7.1
–
–
Final
Rice@#6Michigan
9.3%
91%
7
38
✓
MICH −20.1
–
–
Final
#12Marshall@Michigan StateUpset
50%
50%
24
34
✓
MRSH −0.5
–
–
Final
#3Nebraska@#23Notre Dame
66%
34%
27
24
✓
NEB −6.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
34%
66%
35
14
✗
WAKE −5.7
–
–
Final
NC State@Indiana
43%
57%
41
38
✗
IU −2.2
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
20%
80%
5
38
✓
NU −12.5
–
–
Final
Ohio@#21MinnesotaUpset
9.5%
90%
23
17
✗
MINN −19.9
–
–
Final
#11Ohio State@Arizona
51%
49%
27
17
✓
OSU −0.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#9Oklahoma
4.9%
95%
7
45
✓
OU −25.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
72%
28%
36
26
✓
OKST −9.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@New Mexico
54%
46%
28
20
✓
ORST −2.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Penn State
35%
65%
7
67
✓
PSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Bowling Green
64%
36%
34
16
✓
PITT −6.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@#10Purdue
1.8%
98%
10
45
✓
PUR −32.6
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Rutgers
16%
84%
0
59
✓
RUTG −15.0
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#25StanfordUpset
4.6%
95%
40
27
✗
STAN −26.0
–
–
Final
Georgia@South Carolina
56%
44%
10
21
✗
UGA −2.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#15USC
30%
70%
14
17
✓
USC −7.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas
3.1%
97%
10
52
✓
TEX −28.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Texas A&M
23%
77%
3
51
✓
TA&M −10.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Nevada
70%
30%
41
10
✓
TCU −8.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Texas Tech
4.7%
95%
7
13
✓
TTU −25.7
–
–
Final
SMU@UTEP
56%
44%
20
37
✗
SMU −2.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UCLA
24%
76%
21
24
✓
UCLA −10.6
–
–
Final
#4Miami (FL)@WashingtonUpset
72%
28%
29
34
✗
MIA −9.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Iowa
47%
53%
27
21
✗
IOWA −0.8
–
–
Final
#16Oregon@#8Wisconsin
32%
68%
23
27
✓
WIS −6.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 7 · TBD Chattanooga at UAB UAB −30.7 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Northern Iowa at Boise State Boise State −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Northwestern State at UCF UCF −34.3 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD East Tennessee State at Colorado State Colorado State −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Colgate at UConn UConn −8.8 73%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Grambling at Louisville Louisville −28.9 97%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Montana at Idaho Idaho −10.0 75%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Illinois State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −31.8 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Portland State at Hawaii Hawaii −34.0 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Weber State at Toledo Toledo −44.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Southern Utah at Utah State Utah State −18.1 88%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Richmond at Virginia Virginia −27.4 96%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Western Illinois at Ball State Ball State −34.2 99%