The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 69

Wilder than 69% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockUConn over Akron9.2% chance · won 38-35
  • Runner-upHouston over Memphis16% chance · won 33-30
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Air Force17% chance · won 29-23

Upsets

Thu, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
East Carolina@Louisville
46%
54%
28
25
✗
LOU −1.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 50 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@UAB
19%
81%
9
14
✓
UAB −13.4
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington State
51%
49%
23
20
✓
ASU −0.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Army
50%
50%
17
21
✓
TULN −0.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Auburn
4.8%
95%
28
38
✓
AUB −26.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Buffalo
67%
33%
44
35
✓
BALL −7.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Boise State
6.6%
93%
0
59
✓
BOIS −23.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
26%
74%
6
20
✓
BGSU −10.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@UCF
2.7%
97%
0
55
✓
UCF −30.5
–
–
Final
#11Clemson@North Carolina
83%
17%
38
24
✓
CLEM −15.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah
46%
54%
24
17
✗
UTAH −1.0
–
–
Final
UConn@AkronUpset
9.2%
91%
38
35
✗
AKR −20.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#1Florida State
2.8%
97%
3
37
✓
FSU −30.3
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@Kentucky
77%
23%
34
30
✓
UGA −12.3
–
–
Final
Duke@#23Georgia Tech
1.9%
98%
10
45
✓
GT −32.9
–
–
Final
Houston@MemphisUpset
16%
84%
33
30
✗
MEM −15.3
–
–
Final
#17Minnesota@IndianaUpset
75%
25%
43
51
✗
MINN −11.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
57%
43%
15
23
✗
COLO −3.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#6Kansas State
3.9%
96%
23
28
✓
KSU −27.8
–
–
Final
#12Mississippi State@LSUUpset
68%
32%
38
45
✗
MSST −8.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Marshall
4.1%
96%
12
34
✓
MRSH −27.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Maryland
19%
81%
7
37
✓
MD −13.6
–
–
Final
#4Miami (FL)@Temple
91%
8.7%
45
17
✓
MIA −22.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#10Michigan
12%
88%
0
14
✓
MICH −18.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@#2Nebraska
0.3%
>99%
0
59
✓
NEB −43.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
7.8%
92%
23
42
✓
UNLV −22.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Air ForceUpset
17%
84%
29
23
✗
AF −15.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas State
57%
43%
35
29
✓
NMSU −3.1
–
–
Final
#24Notre Dame@West Virginia
54%
46%
42
28
✓
ND −2.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
5.8%
94%
3
52
✓
OHIO −24.8
–
–
Final
#9Ohio State@Iowa
90%
10%
38
10
✓
OSU −20.9
–
–
Final
#21Arizona@#15Oregon
32%
68%
10
14
✓
ORE −7.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@UCLA
47%
53%
44
38
✗
UCLA −0.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@Penn State
53%
47%
25
39
✗
ILL −1.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
50%
50%
26
42
✓
BC −0.5
–
–
Final
#13Purdue@Wisconsin
50%
50%
30
24
✗
PUR −0.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Rice
18%
82%
13
38
✓
RICE −14.3
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Navy
32%
68%
28
21
✗
NAVY −6.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@BYUUpset
24%
76%
16
15
✗
BYU −10.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Nevada
73%
27%
49
30
✓
SJSU −10.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
68%
32%
30
14
✓
SC −8.1
–
–
Final
USC@Stanford
52%
48%
30
32
✗
USC −1.3
–
–
Final
#25Alabama@#20Tennessee
34%
66%
10
20
✓
TENN −6.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@#18Texas
7.4%
93%
12
46
✓
TEX −22.7
–
–
Final
#19Texas A&M@Iowa State
57%
43%
30
7
✓
TA&M −3.4
–
–
Final
#14TCU@Tulsa
93%
7.3%
17
3
✓
TCU −23.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@UTEP
43%
57%
13
23
✓
UTEP −2.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Utah State
45%
55%
14
31
✓
USU −1.4
–
–
Final
#3Virginia Tech@Syracuse
80%
20%
22
14
✓
VT −13.6
–
–
Final
California@#22Washington
13%
87%
24
36
✓
WASH −17.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
28%
72%
22
52
✓
WMU −8.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 21 · TBD Liberty at USF USF −7.1 68%