The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockArkansas over Mississippi State10% chance · won 17-10
  • Runner-upIdaho State over Utah State16% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upNevada over Rice25% chance · won 34-28

Upsets

Thu, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Colorado State
3.2%
97%
13
37
✓
CSU −29.4
–
–

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 47 games

Final
San Diego State@Air Force
22%
78%
24
45
✓
AF −11.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
81%
19%
34
6
✓
AKR −14.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Army
66%
34%
27
7
✓
UAB −6.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#11Mississippi StateUpset
10.0%
90%
17
10
✗
MSST −20.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@Alabama
43%
57%
9
0
✗
ALA −2.5
–
–
Final
UConn@Ball State
26%
74%
0
29
✓
BALL −9.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@Boise State
6.3%
94%
24
66
✓
BOIS −24.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@BYU
33%
67%
13
37
✓
BYU −6.6
–
–
Final
#18Southern Miss@CincinnatiUpset
69%
31%
24
27
✗
USM −8.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#14Clemson
23%
77%
14
16
✓
CLEM −11.1
–
–
Final
#6Florida@#1Florida State
16%
84%
7
30
✓
FSU −15.2
–
–
Final
SMU@Fresno State
7.1%
93%
7
14
✓
FRES −23.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#23Georgia
22%
78%
14
32
✓
UGA −12.0
–
–
Final
#13Georgia Tech@Maryland
72%
28%
35
22
✓
GT −9.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Hawaii
61%
39%
10
27
✗
LT −4.8
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa State
22%
78%
17
38
✓
ISU −11.6
–
–
Final
#7Kansas State@Missouri
93%
7.1%
28
24
✓
KSU −23.9
–
–
Final
Louisville@Houston
79%
21%
32
13
✓
LOU −13.2
–
–
Final
#3Miami (FL)@Syracuse
78%
22%
26
0
✓
MIA −12.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
91%
9.3%
17
16
✓
M-OH −21.6
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@#8Ohio State
37%
63%
38
26
✗
OSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Middle Tennessee
4.6%
95%
38
41
✓
MTSU −26.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
14%
86%
24
27
✓
MINN −16.6
–
–
Final
Rice@NevadaUpset
75%
25%
28
34
✗
RICE −11.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
71%
29%
59
21
✓
UNC −9.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@North Texas
66%
34%
23
30
✗
NMSU −7.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
6.9%
93%
6
40
✓
NIU −23.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
40%
60%
23
61
✓
NU −3.4
–
–
Final
#22Notre Dame@Rutgers
92%
8.5%
45
17
✓
ND −22.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
43%
57%
28
38
✓
OHIO −2.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#2Oklahoma
4.5%
96%
13
27
✓
OU −26.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
19%
82%
22
50
✓
OKST −13.9
–
–
Final
#21Oregon@#17Oregon State
34%
66%
13
23
✓
ORST −6.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Penn State
46%
54%
23
42
✓
PSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Temple
62%
38%
7
0
✓
PITT −5.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@#19Purdue
11%
89%
13
41
✓
PUR −19.5
–
–
Final
USC@UCLA
33%
67%
38
35
✗
UCLA −6.5
–
–
Final
Stanford@California
42%
58%
36
30
✗
CAL −2.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#16Tennessee
7.8%
92%
20
59
✓
TENN −22.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@#15TCU
19%
81%
14
47
✓
TCU −13.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulane
50%
50%
14
37
✗
MEM −0.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Tulsa
68%
32%
17
28
✗
SJSU −8.2
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
44%
56%
17
24
✓
UVA −2.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Navy
41%
59%
49
26
✗
NAVY −3.1
–
–
Final
#24Washington@Washington State
65%
35%
51
3
✓
WASH −6.8
–
–
Final
#25East Carolina@West VirginiaUpset
58%
42%
24
42
✗
ECU −3.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
2.6%
97%
0
28
✓
WMU −30.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −15.5 84%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Austin Peay at USF USF −14.0 82%
Sat, Nov 18 · TBD Wofford at Louisiana-Monroe Wofford −2.6 55%