The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 50 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockUAB over East Carolina12% chance · won 16-13
  • Runner-upUCF over Alabama15% chance · won 40-38
  • Runner-upUCLA over Arizona20% chance · won 27-24

Upsets

Thu, Oct 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
9.1%
91%
7
19
✓
BYU −21.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
12%
88%
16
13
✗
ECU −18.0
–
–
Final
30%
70%
19
21
✓
AUB −7.8
–
–
Final
52%
48%
38
34
✓
BALL −1.5
–
–
Final
66%
34%
34
31
✓
BOIS −7.2
–
–
Final
6.0%
94%
13
42
✓
BC −24.5
–
–
Final
24%
76%
28
16
✗
USC −10.8
–
–
Final
15%
85%
40
38
✗
ALA −16.4
–
–
Final
43%
57%
15
45
✓
CIN −2.1
–
–
Final
20%
80%
21
37
✓
COLO −12.8
–
–
Final
62%
38%
34
22
✓
CSU −5.2
–
–
Final
23%
77%
23
34
✓
FLA −11.4
–
–
Final
85%
15%
58
14
✓
FSU −16.9
–
–
Final
10.0%
90%
12
34
✓
FRES −20.1
–
–
Final
26%
74%
31
28
✗
CLEM −10.0
–
–
Final
18%
82%
20
39
✓
ISU −14.1
–
–
Final
10%
90%
32
35
✓
LOU −19.7
–
–
Final
53%
47%
31
28
✓
MRSH −1.6
–
–
Final
77%
23%
20
9
✓
MD −12.3
–
–
Final
0.4%
>99%
31
42
✓
MIA −42.3
–
–
Final
48%
52%
10
14
✓
MSU −0.2
–
–
Final
29%
71%
40
43
✓
MISS −8.1
–
–
Final
3.1%
97%
35
61
✓
MSST −29.7
–
–
Final
50%
50%
3
10
✗
UTAH −0.5
–
–
Final
57%
43%
13
0
✓
UNT −3.1
–
–
Final
2.4%
98%
10
73
✓
NIU −31.4
–
–
Final
25%
75%
41
35
✗
MINN −10.2
–
–
Final
16%
84%
31
34
✓
ND −15.3
–
–
Final
44%
56%
14
31
✓
OU −2.0
–
–
Final
59%
41%
56
55
✓
ORE −4.1
–
–
Final
17%
83%
9
38
✓
ORST −14.6
–
–
Final
52%
48%
27
24
✓
PSU −1.4
–
–
Final
47%
53%
27
31
✓
PUR −0.7
–
–
Final
79%
21%
57
48
✓
SJSU −13.5
–
–
Final
60%
40%
21
13
✓
USF −4.7
–
–
Final
28%
72%
7
21
✓
SMU −8.9
–
–
Final
93%
7.4%
6
3
✓
USM −23.6
–
–
Final
47%
53%
17
14
✗
SC −0.7
–
–
Final
2.1%
98%
14
48
✓
TEX −32.4
–
–
Final
54%
46%
10
26
✗
KSU −2.0
–
–
Final
5.9%
94%
0
37
✓
TCU −24.6
–
–
Final
47%
53%
45
39
✗
KU −0.8
–
–
Final
86%
14%
35
14
✓
TOL −17.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#21ArizonaUpset
20%
80%
27
24
✗
ARIZ −12.9
–
–
Final
31%
69%
31
44
✓
USU −7.4
–
–
Final
27%
73%
6
17
✓
UVA −9.1
–
–
Final
7.2%
93%
34
37
✓
VT −23.0
–
–
Final
66%
34%
31
28
✓
WASH −7.0
–
–
Final
95%
5.3%
42
0
✓
WMU −26.3
–
–
Final
79%
21%
13
7
✓
WIS −13.2
–
–