The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 22 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 52

Wilder than 52% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 5.0 expected

  • Biggest shockArizona State over Arizona25% chance · won 30-17
  • Runner-upEast Carolina over Southern Miss26% chance · won 14-9
  • Runner-upBYU over Utah31% chance · won 34-27

Upsets

Wed, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@#25Toledo
4.0%
96%
17
51
✓
TOL −27.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#18Mississippi State@Ole MissUpset
62%
38%
30
45
✗
MSST −5.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 8 games

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
25%
75%
30
17
✗
ARIZ −10.2
–
–
Final
LSU@Arkansas
46%
54%
3
14
✓
ARK −1.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah
31%
69%
34
27
✗
UTAH −7.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#20Southern MissUpset
26%
74%
14
9
✗
USM −9.6
–
–
Final
Colorado@#3Nebraska
5.1%
95%
32
34
✓
NEB −25.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
33%
67%
28
38
✓
PITT −6.6
–
–
Final
#12Texas A&M@#9Texas
35%
65%
17
43
✓
TEX −5.8
–
–
Final
#11TCU@SMU
94%
5.5%
62
7
✓
TCU −26.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 12 games

Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
47%
53%
37
6
✗
SJSU −0.7
–
–
Final
#13Georgia Tech@#22Georgia
44%
56%
27
15
✗
UGA −1.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#2Miami (FL)
5.5%
94%
6
52
✓
MIA −25.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Diego State
51%
49%
31
24
✓
UNLV −0.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
12%
88%
14
32
✓
NCSU −18.3
–
–
Final
#21Notre Dame@USC
62%
38%
38
21
✓
ND −5.5
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
95%
4.9%
12
7
✓
OU −26.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
4.0%
96%
21
49
✓
SYR −27.7
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@Vanderbilt
84%
16%
28
26
✓
TENN −16.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Tulsa
19%
81%
3
38
✓
TLSA −13.6
–
–
Final
Virginia@#5Virginia Tech
5.9%
94%
21
42
✓
VT −24.6
–
–
Final
#23Wisconsin@Hawaii
92%
7.6%
34
18
✓
WIS −23.3
–
–