The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2000

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 48

Wilder than 48% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockRichmond over Arkansas State7.9% chance · won 30-27
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Michigan State17% chance · won 37-17
  • Runner-upLSU over Tennessee25% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
90%
9.9%
59
7
✓
FSU −21.3
–
–
Final
56%
44%
29
24
✓
WVU −2.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 48 games

Final
63%
37%
20
37
✗
M-OH −5.5
–
–
Final
39%
61%
17
27
✓
ALA −4.8
–
–
Final
7.4%
93%
2
47
✓
UAB −24.1
–
–
Final
42%
58%
27
3
✗
STAN −3.5
–
–
Final
15%
85%
0
33
✓
AUB −17.1
–
–
Final
54%
46%
18
11
✓
BGSU −1.4
–
–
Final
59%
41%
31
10
✓
UCF −3.8
–
–
Final
96%
3.9%
52
22
✓
CLEM −29.1
–
–
Final
71%
29%
45
14
✓
CSU −9.2
–
–
Final
31%
69%
38
7
✗
ARK −8.5
–
–
Final
51%
49%
42
28
✓
GT −0.3
–
–
Final
30%
70%
15
17
✓
HOU −8.9
–
–
Final
18%
82%
33
45
✓
IU −15.1
–
–
Final
69%
31%
31
17
✓
ISU −8.2
–
–
Final
69%
31%
44
21
✓
KSU −8.3
–
–
Final
#12Tennessee@LSUUpset
76%
24%
31
38
✗
TENN −11.3
–
–
Final
5.1%
95%
22
41
✓
LOU −27.2
–
–
Final
0.6%
99%
14
47
✓
MRSH −42.1
–
–
Final
95%
5.3%
64
6
✓
MIA −26.7
–
–
Final
24%
76%
10
13
✓
MICH −11.6
–
–
Final
46%
54%
10
44
✓
MINN −1.8
–
–
Final
24%
76%
17
35
✓
MISS −11.5
–
–
Final
49%
51%
35
47
✓
MSST −0.4
–
–
Final
3.1%
97%
24
42
✓
NEB −31.1
–
–
Final
63%
37%
13
34
✗
AF −5.5
–
–
Final
54%
46%
10
45
✗
WYO −1.5
–
–
Final
67%
33%
43
14
✓
NIU −7.0
–
–
Final
17%
83%
37
17
✗
MSU −15.8
–
–
Final
5.3%
95%
16
34
✓
OU −26.9
–
–
Final
34%
66%
16
23
✓
ORE −7.1
–
–
Final
58%
42%
21
31
✗
USC −3.3
–
–
Final
66%
34%
20
22
✗
PUR −7.0
–
–
Final
30%
70%
16
29
✓
SJSU −8.9
–
–
Final
9.7%
90%
3
24
✓
USM −21.6
–
–
Final
31%
69%
14
42
✓
SYR −8.3
–
–
Final
15%
85%
7
42
✓
TEX −17.3
–
–
Final
16%
84%
15
33
✓
TA&M −16.8
–
–
Final
91%
8.8%
24
0
✓
TCU −22.4
–
–
Final
21%
79%
31
41
✓
UTEP −13.3
–
–
Final
10%
90%
0
41
✓
TOL −21.3
–
–
Final
41%
59%
19
24
✓
TULN −4.0
–
–
Final
70%
30%
24
14
✓
TLSA −8.6
–
–
Final
38%
62%
31
38
✓
UCLA −5.1
–
–
Final
57%
42%
35
14
✓
UTAH −3.0
–
–
Final
55%
44%
27
10
✓
UVA −2.2
–
–
Final
77%
23%
48
34
✓
VT −12.2
–
–
Final
29%
72%
21
17
✗
CAL −9.5
–
–
Final
33%
67%
10
23
✓
WMU −7.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Montana State at Idaho Idaho −9.2 71%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Richmond at Arkansas State Arkansas State −23.5 92%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Troy at USF Troy −2.0 55%
Sat, Sep 30 · TBD Texas State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −0.8 52%