Bowls slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 26 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 98

Wilder than 98% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 8.6 expected

Biggest shockIdaho over Southern Miss6.6% chance · won 42-35
Runner-upTCU over USC13% chance · won 28-19
Runner-upPurdue over Kansas State28% chance · won 37-34

Upsets

Oregon 43, Colorado 51#17 Oregon lost to unranked Colorado
West Virginia 31, Missouri 34#22 West Virginia lost to unranked Missouri
Southern Miss 35, Idaho 42Idaho won; the model gave them 7% before kickoff
Virginia 33, Georgia 35#20 Virginia lost to unranked Georgia
USC 19, TCU 28TCU won; the model gave them 13% before kickoff

Fri, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Toledovs

Marshall

38%
62%

17
23

✓

MRSH −4.4

–

Sat, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final

BYUvs

#16Air Force

24%
76%

13
20

✓

AF −10.6

–

Final

Mississippi Statevs

#4Tennessee

19%
81%

14
24

✓

TENN −13.8

–

Final

#3Kansas Statevs

#10Texas A&M

71%
29%

33
36

✗

KSU −9.2

–

Sat, Dec 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

San Diego Statevs

North Carolina

32%
68%

13
20

✓

UNC −7.0

–

Wed, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Louisvillevs

Marshall

41%
59%

29
48

✓

MRSH −3.1

–

Fri, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Washingtonvs

#16Air Force

31%
69%

25
45

✓

AF −7.3

–

Final

#17Oregonvs

ColoradoUpset

68%
32%

43
51

✗

ORE −8.1

–

Sat, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#22West Virginiavs

MissouriUpset

51%
49%

31
34

✗

WVU −0.9

–

Tue, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final

NC Statevs

#24Miami (FL)

36%
64%

23
46

✓

MIA −5.2

–

Final

#3Kansas Statevs

#11Purdue

72%
28%

34
37

✗

KSU −9.6

–

Final

Alabamavs

#13Virginia Tech

25%
75%

7
38

✓

VT −10.5

–

Wed, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final

#5Nebraskavs

#15Arizona

63%
37%

20
23

✗

NEB −5.9

–

Final

#25Southern MissvsIdahoUpset

93%
6.6%

35
42

✗

USM −24.5

–

Thu, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

#20Virginiavs

GeorgiaUpset

60%
40%

33
35

✗

UVA −4.7

–

Final

Texas Techvs

Ole Miss

67%
33%

18
35

✗

TTU −7.6

–

Final

#14USCvs

TCUUpset

87%
13%

19
28

✗

USC −18.6

–

Final

BYUvs

#21Tulane

28%
72%

27
41

✓

TULN −9.0

–

Fri, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final

Notre Damevs

#23Georgia Tech

46%
54%

28
35

✓

GT −1.1

–

Final

#19Arkansasvs

#18Michigan

48%
52%

31
45

✓

MICH −0.5

–

Final

#10Texas A&Mvs

#1Ohio State

24%
76%

14
24

✓

OSU −11.0

–

Final

Kentuckyvs

#12Penn State

27%
73%

14
26

✓

PSU −9.2

–

Final

Mississippi Statevs

Texas

49%
51%

11
38

✓

MSST −0.3

–

Final

#9Wisconsinvs

#6UCLA

41%
59%

38
31

✗

UCLA −3.0

–

Sat, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#8Syracusevs

#7Florida

43%
57%

10
31

✓

FLA −2.2

–

Mon, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#2Florida Statevs

#4Tennessee

59%
41%

16
23

✗

FSU −3.9

–