The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 13

Wilder than 13% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 11.5 expected

  • Biggest shockNavy over Boston College22% chance · won 32-31
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Eastern Michigan26% chance · won 26-14
  • Runner-upKansas over Colorado27% chance · won 33-17

Upsets

Thu, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Stanford@Arizona State
15%
85%
38
44
✓
ASU −15.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 50 games

Final
#12Air Force@Tulsa
83%
17%
42
21
✓
AF −15.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#16Arizona
1.1%
99%
7
45
✓
ARIZ −36.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Auburn
33%
67%
17
32
✓
AUB −6.5
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
59%
41%
16
30
✗
USU −3.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
4.8%
95%
21
42
✓
BGSU −26.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@BYU
9.6%
90%
43
46
✓
BYU −20.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Louisiana
96%
4.3%
42
10
✓
UCF −27.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
53%
47%
24
26
✗
WMU −1.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Colorado State
13%
87%
21
42
✓
CSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@Duke
43%
57%
23
28
✓
DUKE −2.3
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@#15Georgia Tech
62%
38%
34
7
✓
FSU −5.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Fresno State
23%
77%
6
32
✓
FRES −11.4
–
–
Final
#25Georgia@Kentucky
46%
54%
28
26
✗
UK −1.3
–
–
Final
Houston@North Texas
51%
49%
31
9
✓
HOU −0.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
73%
27%
17
33
✗
COLO −10.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#5Kansas State
2.8%
97%
7
52
✓
KSU −30.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#19LSU
35%
65%
6
41
✓
LSU −5.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@Louisville
24%
76%
32
35
✓
LOU −11.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Marshall
3.0%
97%
10
42
✓
MRSH −29.8
–
–
Final
#23Miami (FL)@#22West Virginia
37%
63%
34
31
✗
WVU −5.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Cincinnati
88%
12%
41
0
✓
M-OH −19.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@#20Michigan
19%
81%
10
21
✓
MICH −13.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
65%
35%
18
19
✗
MSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Ole Miss
5.1%
95%
17
30
✓
MISS −25.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Boston CollegeUpset
22%
78%
32
31
✗
BC −11.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#2Nebraska
8.1%
92%
13
20
✓
NEB −21.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Idaho
41%
59%
58
23
✗
Idaho −3.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
68%
32%
30
20
✓
UNM −7.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
56%
44%
38
31
✓
UNC −2.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
26%
74%
26
14
✗
EMU −9.8
–
–
Final
Army@Notre Dame
7.4%
93%
17
20
✓
ND −22.7
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Northwestern
95%
4.6%
36
10
✓
OSU −27.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
21%
79%
26
41
✓
OKST −12.4
–
–
Final
#17USC@#7Oregon
26%
74%
13
17
✓
ORE −10.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#24Purdue
3.3%
97%
9
42
✓
PUR −29.2
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
45%
55%
20
21
✓
SDSU −1.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@SMU
11%
89%
7
10
✓
SMU −19.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
19%
81%
7
41
✓
USM −13.4
–
–
Final
Alabama@#6Tennessee
6.8%
93%
18
35
✓
TENN −23.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas
17%
83%
20
30
✓
TEX −14.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#10Texas A&M
21%
79%
10
17
✓
TA&M −12.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Akron
59%
41%
24
17
✓
TOL −4.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rutgers
91%
8.7%
52
24
✓
TULN −22.2
–
–
Final
#4UCLA@California
83%
17%
28
16
✓
UCLA −15.5
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Vanderbilt
61%
39%
14
17
✗
SC −5.0
–
–
Final
NC State@#18Virginia
24%
76%
13
23
✓
UVA −10.6
–
–
Final
#14Virginia Tech@UAB
91%
9.2%
41
0
✓
VT −21.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#21Washington
13%
87%
34
35
✓
WASH −17.5
–
–
Final
#11Wisconsin@Iowa
67%
33%
31
0
✓
WIS −7.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Wyoming
25%
75%
24
34
✓
WYO −10.1
–
–