The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2

Chaos 92

Wilder than 92% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 11.1 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Iowa2.9% chance · won 27-9
  • Runner-upDuke over Northwestern14% chance · won 44-10
  • Runner-upIdaho over San Jose State14% chance · won 17-12

Upsets

Thu, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Navy@Wake Forest
64%
36%
14
26
✗
NAVY −6.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
#25Air Force@UNLV
86%
14%
52
10
✓
AF −17.2
–
–
Final
Akron@Temple
31%
68%
35
28
✗
TEM −6.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Alabama
14%
86%
7
32
✓
ALA −16.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@Stanford
68%
32%
31
14
✓
ARIZ −7.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@Ole Miss
34%
66%
17
0
✗
MISS −5.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
6.6%
93%
14
41
✓
BC −23.1
–
–
Final
#17Arizona State@BYUUpset
64%
36%
6
26
✗
ASU −6.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#10Colorado
11%
89%
21
29
✓
COLO −18.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Nevada
75%
25%
26
14
✓
CSU −10.8
–
–
Final
Duke@NorthwesternUpset
14%
86%
44
10
✗
NU −16.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball StateUpset
23%
77%
13
7
✗
BALL −10.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#5Florida
1.6%
98%
10
42
✓
FLA −33.3
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@South Carolina
62%
38%
17
3
✓
UGA −5.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Georgia Tech
5.7%
94%
7
42
✓
GT −24.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@San Jose StateUpset
14%
86%
17
12
✗
SJSU −16.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Indiana
44%
56%
30
45
✓
IU −1.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#9IowaUpset
2.9%
97%
27
9
✗
IOWA −29.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#19Kansas State
2.1%
98%
7
73
✓
KSU −31.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@LSU
5.2%
95%
6
42
✓
LSU −25.0
–
–
Final
#22Miami (FL)@Cincinnati
68%
32%
38
12
✓
MIA −7.9
–
–
Final
#23Miami (OH)@Army
77%
23%
14
13
✓
M-OH −12.0
–
–
Final
#14Notre Dame@Michigan StateUpset
64%
36%
23
45
✗
ND −6.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Houston
43%
57%
14
7
✗
HOU −2.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
74%
26%
14
6
✓
MSST −10.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@Missouri
14%
86%
23
41
✓
MIZ −16.4
–
–
Final
#1Nebraska@California
89%
11%
24
3
✓
NEB −19.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
37%
63%
36
39
✓
UNM −4.5
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@NC StateUpset
79%
21%
7
24
✗
FSU −12.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@#3Ohio State
8.1%
92%
0
49
✓
OSU −21.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@TCU
59%
41%
10
9
✓
OU −3.9
–
–
Final
#11Oregon@UTEP
92%
8.3%
33
26
✓
ORE −21.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oregon State
22%
78%
17
27
✓
ORST −11.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#7Penn State
2.3%
98%
3
48
✓
PSU −30.9
–
–
Final
Rice@Purdue
29%
71%
19
21
✓
PUR −7.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@USC
14%
86%
6
35
✓
USC −16.7
–
–
Final
#16Syracuse@#12Michigan
37%
63%
38
28
✗
MICH −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@#20Texas A&M
8.2%
92%
7
28
✓
TA&M −21.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@North Texas
88%
12%
30
0
✓
TTU −18.9
–
–
Final
#24Tulane@SMU
65%
35%
31
21
✓
TULN −6.5
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Tulsa
64%
36%
20
35
✗
OKST −5.9
–
–
Final
Texas@#21UCLA
21%
79%
31
49
✓
UCLA −11.7
–
–
Final
Louisville@Utah
8.3%
92%
22
45
✓
UTAH −21.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@#15Virginia
6.8%
93%
19
31
✓
UVA −22.8
–
–
Final
#18Virginia Tech@Clemson
50%
50%
37
0
✗
VT −0.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@Boise State
84%
16%
33
21
✓
WSU −15.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Wisconsin
34%
66%
0
45
✓
WIS −5.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Eastern Illinois at UCF UCF −32.6 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Western Illinois at Central Michigan Central Michigan −23.3 94%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Chattanooga at East Carolina East Carolina −18.3 89%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Illinois Illinois −10.4 76%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Troy at Marshall Marshall −21.9 92%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Louisiana −15.3 84%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Montana State at Wyoming Wyoming −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 12 · TBD Youngstown State at Kent State Kent State −14.2 83%