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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 39

Wilder than 39% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico State over New Mexico15% chance · won 28-27
  • Runner-upStanford over North Carolina19% chance · won 37-34
  • Runner-upLouisville over Illinois19% chance · won 35-9

Upsets

Thu, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@#14Air Force
30%
70%
27
30
✓
AF −8.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 44 games

Final
Iowa@#25Arizona
33%
67%
11
35
✓
ARIZ −7.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Arizona State
5.1%
95%
15
34
✓
ASU −27.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Arkansas
40%
60%
17
44
✓
ARK −4.3
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Army
42%
58%
20
37
✓
ARMY −3.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Baylor
74%
26%
30
33
✗
NCSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Boston College
14%
86%
7
31
✓
BC −18.0
–
–
Final
California@Oklahoma
39%
61%
13
12
✗
OU −4.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@#15Colorado
12%
88%
6
25
✓
COLO −19.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Ohio
39%
61%
21
14
✗
OHIO −4.6
–
–
Final
Duke@#8Florida State
15%
85%
13
62
✓
FSU −17.5
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#10Georgia
13%
87%
9
16
✓
UGA −19.1
–
–
Final
Ball State@Iowa State
30%
70%
0
38
✓
ISU −9.0
–
–
Final
Texas@#12Kansas State
16%
84%
7
48
✓
KSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Indiana@Kentucky
20%
80%
27
31
✓
UK −14.0
–
–
Final
#16LSU@Auburn
51%
49%
31
19
✓
LSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana Tech
12%
88%
14
77
✓
LT −19.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@IllinoisUpset
19%
81%
35
9
✗
ILL −14.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@South Carolina
50%
50%
24
21
✗
SC −0.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Michigan
8.8%
91%
20
59
✓
MICH −22.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Minnesota
35%
65%
14
41
✓
MINN −6.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
72%
28%
30
6
✓
MISS −9.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Navy
4.9%
95%
24
38
✓
NAVY −27.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico StateUpset
85%
15%
27
28
✗
UNM −17.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Rice
32%
68%
23
14
✗
RICE −8.0
–
–
Final
Missouri@#2Ohio State
14%
86%
14
35
✓
OSU −17.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Oklahoma State
56%
44%
23
42
✗
MSST −2.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#17Oregon
4.1%
96%
3
58
✓
ORE −28.9
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@Pittsburgh
88%
12%
20
13
✓
PSU −19.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Purdue
51%
49%
7
35
✗
UCF −0.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#18USC
24%
76%
20
40
✓
USC −11.9
–
–
Final
#19North Carolina@StanfordUpset
81%
19%
34
37
✗
UNC −14.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#13Syracuse
1.1%
99%
14
70
✓
SYR −37.8
–
–
Final
#6Florida@#7Tennessee
42%
58%
17
20
✓
TENN −3.4
–
–
Final
#23Texas A&M@Southern Miss
55%
45%
24
6
✓
TA&M −2.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#21Texas Tech
20%
80%
28
34
✓
TTU −14.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
32%
68%
7
35
✓
TOL −7.7
–
–
Final
#5UCLA@Houston
90%
9.8%
42
24
✓
UCLA −21.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah
7.6%
92%
21
30
✓
UTAH −23.8
–
–
Final
Clemson@#20Virginia
20%
80%
18
20
✓
UVA −14.2
–
–
Final
#4Virginia Tech@#11Miami (FL)
49%
51%
27
20
✗
MIA −0.5
–
–
Final
BYU@#9Washington
21%
79%
10
20
✓
WASH −13.4
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
3.0%
97%
16
24
✓
WSU −31.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@West Virginia
20%
80%
20
42
✓
WVU −13.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@#22Wisconsin
2.9%
97%
7
52
✓
WIS −31.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Tennessee Tech at UAB UAB −23.6 92%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Missouri State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −5.4 62%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Portland State at Boise State Boise State −25.6 94%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −11.9 76%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Illinois State at Kansas Kansas −33.0 98%
Sat, Sep 19 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −9.4 71%