The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 35

Wilder than 35% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas over Nebraska8.8% chance · won 20-16
  • Runner-upRice over Colorado State25% chance · won 35-23
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Marshall28% chance · won 34-13

Upsets

Thu, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
San Diego State@BYU
26%
74%
0
13
✓
BYU −9.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
SMU@#13Air Force
5.7%
94%
7
31
✓
AF −24.9
–
–
Final
#24Southern Miss@AlabamaUpset
61%
39%
20
30
✗
USM −4.9
–
–
Final
#8Oregon@#17Arizona
51%
49%
3
38
✗
ORE −0.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Washington State
51%
49%
38
28
✓
ASU −1.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Auburn
49%
51%
24
21
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Marshall@Bowling Green
72%
28%
13
34
✗
MRSH −9.8
–
–
Final
California@Oregon State
45%
55%
20
19
✗
ORST −1.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
50%
50%
27
28
✗
AKR −0.6
–
–
Final
#22Georgia@#7Florida
23%
77%
7
38
✓
FLA −11.5
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#2Florida State
6.3%
94%
13
39
✓
FSU −24.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@New Mexico
63%
37%
28
20
✓
FRES −5.6
–
–
Final
#21Georgia Tech@Maryland
84%
16%
31
14
✓
GT −16.3
–
–
Final
Houston@East Carolina
32%
68%
34
31
✗
ECU −7.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@North Texas
44%
56%
41
23
✗
UNT −2.0
–
–
Final
#5Kansas State@Kansas
91%
9.3%
54
6
✓
KSU −21.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana-Monroe
52%
48%
14
20
✗
UAB −1.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
24%
76%
19
35
✓
MEM −11.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#19Miami (FL)
11%
89%
17
35
✓
MIA −18.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Miami (OH)
13%
87%
21
35
✓
M-OH −17.7
–
–
Final
#23Michigan@Minnesota
70%
30%
15
10
✓
MICH −9.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
16%
84%
5
29
✓
MSU −15.3
–
–
Final
#14LSU@Ole MissUpset
67%
33%
31
37
✗
LSU −7.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@Texas Tech
41%
59%
28
26
✗
TTU −3.3
–
–
Final
Boise State@Nevada
16%
84%
24
52
✓
NEV −15.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Clemson
56%
44%
46
39
✓
NCSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Notre Dame
17%
83%
3
27
✓
ND −14.6
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Indiana
91%
9.1%
38
7
✓
OSU −21.7
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Oklahoma
33%
67%
14
17
✓
OU −6.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@#9Penn State
1.1%
99%
0
27
✓
PSU −36.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@#20Purdue
17%
83%
14
36
✓
PUR −14.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@RiceUpset
75%
25%
23
35
✗
CSU −11.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
50%
50%
10
21
✓
TEM −0.5
–
–
Final
Washington@#16USC
29%
71%
10
33
✓
USC −8.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#15Syracuse
7.3%
93%
28
45
✓
SYR −22.9
–
–
Final
#6Tennessee@South Carolina
90%
9.7%
49
14
✓
TENN −21.2
–
–
Final
Texas@#3NebraskaUpset
8.8%
91%
20
16
✗
NEB −21.2
–
–
Final
#11Texas A&M@Oklahoma State
65%
35%
17
6
✓
TA&M −6.8
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UTEP
14%
86%
13
30
✓
UTEP −17.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
81%
19%
16
3
✓
TOL −14.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulane
0.7%
99%
20
72
✓
TULN −39.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UNLV
63%
37%
20
16
✓
TLSA −5.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@#4UCLA
1.7%
98%
24
28
✓
UCLA −33.7
–
–
Final
Utah@San Jose State
65%
35%
49
17
✓
UTAH −6.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
47%
53%
29
26
✗
NMSU −0.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Vanderbilt
63%
37%
33
36
✗
DUKE −5.7
–
–
Final
#18Virginia@Wake Forest
74%
26%
38
17
✓
UVA −11.0
–
–
Final
#25West Virginia@#12Virginia Tech
26%
74%
13
27
✓
VT −9.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Kent State
85%
15%
48
23
✓
WMU −16.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@TCU
51%
49%
34
27
✓
WYO −1.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Youngstown State at UCF UCF −44.0 >99%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −53.6 >99%
Sat, Oct 31 · TBD Western Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −12.5 79%