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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 49 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 12.1 expected

  • Biggest shockBoise State over Utah9.0% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upRutgers over Army18% chance · won 27-15
  • Runner-upNevada over Fresno State20% chance · won 27-24

Upsets

Thu, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#18Arizona@San Diego State
81%
19%
35
16
✓
ARIZ −14.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 46 games

Final
Ball State@Akron
29%
71%
14
52
✓
AKR −9.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona State
31%
69%
3
24
✓
ASU −8.2
–
–
Final
Alabama@Arkansas
51%
49%
6
42
✗
ALA −0.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Hawaii
36%
64%
20
0
✗
HAW −5.9
–
–
Final
Boise State@UtahUpset
9.0%
91%
31
28
✗
UTAH −22.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
53%
47%
14
24
✗
WSU −1.0
–
–
Final
UCF@Bowling Green
84%
16%
38
31
✓
UCF −16.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
30%
70%
7
46
✓
CMU −8.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@#17Colorado
9.3%
91%
16
18
✓
COLO −22.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@#25Colorado State
2.4%
98%
16
38
✓
CSU −33.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#8Florida
21%
79%
35
51
✓
FLA −13.7
–
–
Final
#16USC@#3Florida State
27%
73%
10
30
✓
FSU −10.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
29%
71%
43
21
✗
UNC −9.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@Cincinnati
53%
47%
48
14
✓
IU −1.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
74%
26%
37
14
✓
IOWA −10.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@UAB
40%
60%
39
37
✗
UAB −4.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#7Kansas State
1.5%
98%
7
62
✓
KSU −36.2
–
–
Final
Idaho@#12LSU
1.4%
99%
20
53
✓
LSU −36.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
71%
29%
28
52
✗
BC −9.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Eastern Michigan
84%
16%
26
23
✓
MRSH −16.1
–
–
Final
Temple@Maryland
31%
69%
20
30
✓
MD −8.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Miami (OH)
23%
77%
14
28
✓
M-OH −12.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#22Michigan
29%
71%
17
29
✓
MICH −9.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@SMU
65%
35%
48
41
✓
MISS −6.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
47%
53%
38
0
✗
SC −1.2
–
–
Final
#11Washington@#2Nebraska
20%
80%
7
55
✓
NEB −13.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno StateUpset
20%
80%
27
24
✗
FRES −14.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
63%
37%
24
33
✗
UTEP −5.5
–
–
Final
#24Purdue@Notre DameUpset
48%
52%
30
31
✓
ND −0.8
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
55%
45%
37
35
✓
OHIO −1.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#13Oregon
8.0%
92%
28
63
✓
ORE −23.3
–
–
Final
Army@RutgersUpset
82%
18%
15
27
✗
ARMY −14.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Jose State
66%
34%
20
37
✗
UNM −6.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
2.2%
98%
0
55
✓
USM −33.3
–
–
Final
Houston@#6Tennessee
3.9%
96%
7
42
✓
TENN −29.3
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas
44%
56%
21
59
✓
TEX −2.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@#14Texas A&M
1.5%
98%
9
28
✓
TA&M −36.2
–
–
Final
#19Air Force@TCUUpset
79%
21%
34
35
✗
AF −13.4
–
–
Final
#23Texas Tech@Iowa State
65%
35%
31
24
✓
TTU −6.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Tulane
20%
80%
24
42
✓
TULN −13.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Duke
65%
35%
24
0
✓
UVA −6.2
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#4Virginia Tech
5.0%
95%
7
27
✓
VT −27.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Clemson
28%
72%
29
19
✗
CLEM −9.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@West Virginia
30%
70%
21
44
✓
WVU −8.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#21Wisconsin
16%
84%
7
38
✓
WIS −16.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Wyoming
28%
72%
19
31
✓
WYO −10.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Murray State at BYU BYU −30.9 97%
Sat, Sep 26 · TBD Sam Houston at Utah State Utah State −14.0 80%