The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 1998

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 9

Wilder than 9% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 13.8 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Northwestern19% chance · won 13-10
  • Runner-upWilliam & Mary over Temple22% chance · won 45-38
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over Tulsa26% chance · won 24-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#10Syracuse@NC StateUpset
59%
41%
17
38
✗
SYR −3.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 49 games

Final
New Mexico@#20Air Force
7.7%
92%
14
56
✓
AF −23.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@UAB
5.4%
95%
13
24
✓
UAB −26.7
–
–
Final
#13Arizona@#19Washington
45%
55%
31
28
✗
WASH −2.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Arkansas
40%
60%
20
27
✓
ARK −4.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Arkansas State
24%
76%
31
34
✓
ARST −11.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
25%
75%
13
18
✓
BALL −11.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
62%
38%
7
35
✗
OHIO −5.0
–
–
Final
UCF@Toledo
52%
48%
31
24
✓
UCF −0.7
–
–
Final
#23Colorado@Oklahoma
64%
36%
27
25
✓
COLO −5.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
84%
16%
20
17
✓
CSU −16.3
–
–
Final
Army@East Carolina
24%
76%
25
30
✓
ECU −11.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Kent State
69%
31%
26
17
✓
EMU −8.2
–
–
Final
#8Florida@Alabama
74%
26%
16
10
✓
FLA −10.5
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Maryland
92%
7.9%
24
10
✓
FSU −23.3
–
–
Final
BYU@Fresno State
52%
48%
21
31
✗
BYU −0.8
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@#9LSU
30%
70%
28
27
✗
LSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
14%
86%
13
41
✓
GT −17.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
39%
61%
14
35
✓
HOU −4.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@NorthwesternUpset
19%
81%
13
10
✗
NU −14.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@Louisiana Tech
24%
76%
28
63
✓
LT −11.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
23%
77%
19
62
✓
LOU −12.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Marshall
45%
55%
17
31
✓
MRSH −2.3
–
–
Final
#21Miami (FL)@Rutgers
93%
6.8%
53
17
✓
MIA −24.7
–
–
Final
#17Michigan@Iowa
51%
49%
12
9
✓
MICH −0.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Michigan State
7.6%
92%
7
38
✓
MSU −23.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Ole Miss
18%
82%
28
30
✓
MISS −15.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#1Nebraska
5.1%
95%
17
24
✓
NEB −27.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
67%
33%
31
20
✓
NEV −7.3
–
–
Final
Clemson@North Carolina
30%
70%
14
21
✓
UNC −9.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Notre Dame
14%
86%
17
35
✓
ND −17.9
–
–
Final
#12Penn State@#2Ohio State
20%
80%
9
28
✓
OSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Utah State
44%
56%
20
16
✗
USU −2.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Pittsburgh
34%
66%
0
35
✓
PITT −6.9
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
21%
79%
21
56
✓
PUR −13.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Tulsa
26%
74%
24
14
✗
TLSA −10.6
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#22USC
29%
71%
24
35
✓
USC −9.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Hawaii
65%
35%
28
0
✓
SMU −6.1
–
–
Final
#6Tennessee@Auburn
63%
37%
17
9
✓
TENN −5.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Texas
30%
70%
33
54
✓
TEX −8.9
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@Kansas
80%
20%
24
21
✓
TA&M −13.6
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@TCU
18%
82%
16
19
✓
TCU −15.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#24Texas Tech
16%
84%
29
31
✓
TTU −16.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#25Tulane
25%
75%
7
21
✓
TULN −11.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#7UCLA
13%
87%
17
49
✓
UCLA −18.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@#18Virginia
4.2%
96%
14
52
✓
UVA −28.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Navy
62%
38%
45
24
✓
WVU −4.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Western Michigan
24%
76%
14
27
✓
WMU −12.1
–
–
Final
#14Wisconsin@Indiana
65%
35%
24
20
✓
WIS −6.3
–
–
Final
Utah@Wyoming
35%
65%
24
27
✓
WYO −6.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Appalachian State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −7.1 66%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Idaho State at Idaho Idaho −41.7 99%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD Northwestern State at Missouri Missouri −51.3 >99%
Sat, Oct 3 · TBD William & Mary at Temple Temple −12.8 78%