The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 19 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 4

Wilder than 4% of weeks in the archive.

2 upsets against 5.6 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisville over Rutgers35% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upBaylor over Oklahoma State41% chance · won 41-34
  • Runner-upWisconsin over Nebraska50% chance · won 70-31

Thu, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Rutgers
35%
65%
20
17
✗
RUTG −5.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCLA@#10Stanford
23%
77%
24
27
✓
STAN −11.4
–
–

Sat, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
UCF@Tulsa
47%
53%
27
33
✓
TLSA −0.8
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma State@#23Baylor
59%
41%
34
41
✗
OKST −4.1
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@TCU
63%
37%
24
17
✓
OU −5.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@West Virginia
11%
89%
10
59
✓
WVU −19.5
–
–

Afternoon 6 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Arkansas State
21%
79%
0
45
✓
ARST −12.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Florida Atlantic
74%
26%
35
21
✓
UL −11.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UConn
69%
31%
34
17
✓
CIN −8.4
–
–
Final
#17Boise State@Nevada
75%
25%
27
21
✓
BOIS −11.3
–
–
Final
#1Alabamavs#6Georgia
69%
31%
32
28
✓
ALA −8.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Texas State
26%
74%
28
66
✓
TXST −9.8
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#11Florida StatevsGeorgia Tech
79%
21%
21
15
✓
FSU −13.5
–
–
Final
#19Texas@#4Kansas State
23%
77%
24
42
✓
KSU −11.4
–
–
Final
#20Nebraskavs#22Wisconsin
50%
50%
31
70
✓
NEB −0.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
South Alabama@Hawaii
35%
65%
7
23
✓
HAW −5.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Northern IllinoisvsKent State
66%
34%
44
37
✓
NIU −7.2
–
–

Sun, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@USF
53%
47%
27
3
✓
PITT −1.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Dec 1 · 2:30 PM ET Nicholls at #21 Oregon State Oregon State −53.6 >99%