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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 56 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 35

Wilder than 35% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.7 expected

  • Biggest shockSan Diego State over Boise State14% chance · won 21-19
  • Runner-upVirginia over NC State16% chance · won 33-6
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over Western Kentucky21% chance · won 34-29

Upsets

Thu, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
11%
89%
14
45
✓
OHIO −19.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia Tech@Miami (FL)
44%
56%
12
30
✓
MIA −2.1
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Western KentuckyUpset
21%
79%
34
29
✗
WKU −12.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington@California
35%
65%
21
13
✗
CAL −5.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 19 games

Final
Missouri@#7Florida
12%
88%
7
14
✓
FLA −18.2
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@Iowa State
73%
27%
35
20
✓
OU −10.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Kentucky
60%
40%
40
0
✓
VAN −4.3
–
–
Final
Temple@Louisville
18%
82%
17
45
✓
LOU −14.2
–
–
Final
#17Michigan@Minnesota
78%
22%
35
13
✓
MICH −12.8
–
–
Final
Houston@East Carolina
51%
49%
28
48
✗
HOU −0.9
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@#23Mississippi State
61%
39%
38
13
✓
TA&M −5.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@ArmyUpset
76%
24%
21
41
✗
AF −11.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Buffalo
44%
56%
24
27
✓
BUF −1.8
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Cincinnati
23%
77%
24
35
✓
CIN −11.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Tennessee
17%
83%
48
55
✓
TENN −14.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Arkansas
37%
63%
15
19
✓
ARK −4.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Auburn
13%
87%
7
42
✓
AUB −17.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Maryland
51%
49%
33
13
✓
GT −0.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@NC StateUpset
16%
84%
33
6
✗
NCSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Central Michigan
58%
42%
42
31
✓
WMU −3.8
–
–
Final
#15Stanford@Colorado
95%
4.6%
48
0
✓
STAN −27.3
–
–
Final
Memphis@Marshall
13%
87%
28
38
✓
MRSH −17.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Kent State
7.1%
93%
24
35
✓
KENT −23.1
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Washington State@Utah
19%
81%
6
49
✓
UTAH −13.5
–
–
Final
TCU@West Virginia
45%
55%
39
38
✗
WVU −1.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Utah State
4.0%
96%
7
38
✓
USU −27.7
–
–
Final
FIU@South Alabama
56%
44%
28
20
✓
FIU −2.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#12Georgia
17%
83%
10
37
✓
UGA −15.1
–
–
Final
Iowa@Indiana
46%
54%
21
24
✓
IU −1.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@#4Notre Dame
6.0%
94%
26
29
✓
ND −24.6
–
–
Final
#24Nebraska@Michigan State
43%
57%
28
24
✗
MSU −2.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Wake Forest
36%
64%
14
28
✓
WAKE −5.3
–
–
Final
Illinois@#16Ohio State
4.6%
95%
22
52
✓
OSU −26.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Baylor
13%
87%
14
41
✓
BAY −17.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Navy
12%
88%
17
24
✓
NAVY −18.0
–
–
Final
UMass@Northern Illinois
2.2%
98%
0
63
✓
NIU −32.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Purdue
63%
37%
34
9
✓
PSU −5.8
–
–
Final
#19Texas@#21Texas Tech
40%
60%
31
22
✗
TTU −3.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulane
68%
32%
49
47
✓
RICE −7.7
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
4.9%
95%
27
51
✓
LT −26.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Louisiana-Monroe
27%
73%
40
24
✗
ULM −9.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
55%
45%
7
35
✗
UNM −2.4
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
36%
64%
31
45
✓
WYO −5.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Idaho
94%
6.4%
42
13
✓
SJSU −24.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@North Texas
58%
42%
37
19
✓
ARST −3.9
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
#2Oregon@#14USC
66%
34%
62
51
✓
ORE −6.9
–
–
Final
UConn@USF
30%
70%
6
13
✓
USF −7.8
–
–
Final
#18Clemson@Duke
74%
26%
56
20
✓
CLEM −10.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Fresno State
4.0%
96%
10
45
✓
FRES −27.8
–
–
Final
SMU@UCF
23%
77%
17
42
✓
UCF −11.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
36%
64%
27
19
✗
USM −5.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona@UCLA
44%
56%
10
66
✓
UCLA −2.0
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#13Boise StateUpset
14%
86%
21
19
✗
BOIS −16.7
–
–
Final
#20Arizona State@#25Oregon State
43%
57%
26
36
✓
ORST −2.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#1Alabama@#11LSU
78%
22%
21
17
✓
ALA −13.0
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma State@#3Kansas State
26%
74%
30
44
✓
KSU −9.8
–
–