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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 47

Wilder than 47% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockFlorida Atlantic over Western Kentucky13% chance · won 37-28
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Alabama18% chance · won 29-24
  • Runner-upBall State over Toledo25% chance · won 34-27

Upsets

Tue, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ball State@ToledoUpset
24%
76%
34
27
✗
TOL −10.5
–
–

Wed, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
32%
68%
26
14
✗
OHIO −7.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#8Florida State@Virginia Tech
76%
24%
28
22
✓
FSU −11.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@UConn
57%
43%
17
24
✗
PITT −3.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Arkansas State
40%
60%
23
45
✓
ARST −3.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
#24Wisconsin@Indiana
72%
28%
62
14
✓
WIS −9.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#17Michigan
23%
77%
31
38
✓
MICH −11.5
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
7.4%
93%
7
28
✓
RUTG −22.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
60%
40%
26
45
✗
LOU −4.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Temple
73%
27%
34
10
✓
CIN −10.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#19Texas
26%
74%
7
33
✓
TEX −9.9
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia
66%
34%
40
41
✗
MIA −6.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
34%
66%
27
24
✗
IOWA −6.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#9South Carolina
17%
83%
20
38
✓
SC −14.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Texas Tech
8.1%
92%
34
41
✓
TTU −21.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#7Florida
7.8%
92%
20
27
✓
FLA −22.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Tennessee
42%
58%
51
48
✗
TENN −2.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@North Carolina
26%
74%
68
50
✗
UNC −9.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Western KentuckyUpset
13%
87%
37
28
✗
WKU −17.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
68%
32%
48
32
✓
KENT −8.1
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
48%
52%
34
31
✗
EMU −0.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona
4.3%
96%
31
56
✓
ARIZ −27.2
–
–
Final
UMass@Akron
30%
70%
22
14
✗
AKR −7.8
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#21Oregon State@#13Stanford
30%
70%
23
27
✓
STAN −7.8
–
–
Final
#23Arizona State@#16USC
32%
68%
17
38
✓
USC −6.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@NC State
32%
68%
6
37
✓
NCSU −6.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
26%
74%
9
28
✓
SDSU −9.6
–
–
Final
#25Penn State@#20Nebraska
38%
62%
23
32
✓
NEB −4.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico State
86%
14%
47
7
✓
SJSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
41%
59%
28
23
✗
UNM −3.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#12Oklahoma State
21%
79%
34
55
✓
OKST −12.5
–
–
Final
Baylor@#5Oklahoma
14%
86%
34
42
✓
OU −17.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#14Clemson
5.5%
94%
10
45
✓
CLEM −25.2
–
–
Final
#4Texas A&M@#1AlabamaUpset
18%
82%
29
24
✗
ALA −14.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Illinois
54%
46%
17
3
✓
MINN −2.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
58%
42%
24
29
✗
WMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Navy@Troy
52%
48%
31
41
✗
NAVY −1.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@UAB
51%
49%
31
38
✗
MRSH −0.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Houston
56%
44%
41
7
✓
TLSA −3.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@North Texas
20%
80%
14
24
✓
UNT −12.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#6Notre Dame@Boston College
93%
7.1%
21
6
✓
ND −23.9
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
Idaho@BYU
0.5%
>99%
13
52
✓
BYU −40.7
–
–
Final
#2Oregon@California
91%
9.3%
59
17
✓
ORE −21.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Washington
51%
49%
15
34
✗
UTAH −1.0
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@Washington State
85%
15%
44
36
✓
UCLA −16.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Nevada
58%
42%
52
36
✓
FRES −3.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 10 games

Final
#11Georgia@Auburn
81%
19%
38
0
✓
UGA −14.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
45%
55%
11
33
✓
CSU −1.4
–
–
Final
#18Boise State@Hawaii
96%
4.4%
49
14
✓
BOIS −27.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#10LSU
22%
78%
17
37
✓
LSU −11.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Ole Miss
47%
53%
27
26
✗
MISS −0.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
46%
54%
23
37
✓
MEM −1.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Texas State
91%
8.6%
62
55
✓
LT −22.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@SMU
18%
82%
6
34
✓
SMU −14.2
–
–
Final
#3Kansas State@TCU
74%
26%
23
10
✓
KSU −10.6
–
–
Final
UCF@UTEP
82%
18%
31
24
✓
UCF −15.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 10 · 5:00 PM ET McNeese at UTSA UTSA −18.0 88%