Week 6 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

No games match.

Thu, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Arkansas State@FIU

55%
45%

34
20

✓

ARST −1.8

–

–

Final

#15USC@Utah

73%
27%

38
28

✓

USC −10.0

–

–

Fri, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

Pittsburgh@Syracuse

43%
57%

13
14

✓

SYR −3.1

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Utah State@BYU

30%
70%

3
6

✓

BYU −8.8

–

–

Time TBD 1 game

Final

East Carolina@UCF

29%
71%

20
40

✓

UCF −9.3

–

–

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final

Navy@Air Force

25%
75%

28
21

✗

AF −11.1

–

–

Final

Arkansas@Auburn

39%
61%

24
7

✗

AUB −4.8

–

–

Final

Michigan State@Indiana

75%
25%

31
27

✓

MSU −11.3

–

–

Final

UConn@Rutgers

31%
69%

3
19

✓

RUTG −8.5

–

–

Final

Buffalo@Ohio

12%
88%

31
38

✓

OHIO −19.6

–

–

Final

Northwestern@Penn State

34%
66%

28
39

✓

PSU −6.8

–

–

Final

USF@Temple

43%
57%

28
37

✓

TEM −3.0

–

–

Final

Boston College@Army

69%
31%

31
34

✗

BC −8.1

–

–

Final

Kansas@#9Kansas State

4.1%
96%

16
56

✓

KSU −28.9

–

–

Final

#19Boise State@Southern Miss

77%
23%

40
14

✓

BOIS −12.3

–

–

Final

Mississippi State@Kentucky

68%
32%

27
14

✓

MSST −7.7

–

–

Final

Virginia Tech@North Carolina

35%
65%

34
48

✓

UNC −6.4

–

–

Final

Kent State@Eastern Michigan

61%
39%

41
14

✓

KENT −4.5

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@Akron

61%
39%

24
10

✓

BGSU −4.7

–

–

Final

UMass@Western Michigan

20%
80%

14
52

✓

WMU −13.8

–

–

Afternoon 17 games

Final

Arizona@#11Stanford

20%
80%

48
54

✓

STAN −14.3

–

–

Final

Virginia@Duke

31%
69%

17
42

✓

DUKE −8.2

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Ball State

56%
44%

35
23

✓

NIU −2.5

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Toledo

7.9%
92%

35
50

✓

TOL −23.5

–

–

Final

#8LSU@#12Florida

44%
56%

6
14

✓

FLA −2.8

–

–

Final

Wake Forest@Maryland

40%
60%

14
19

✓

MD −4.3

–

–

Final

Georgia Tech@Clemson

26%
74%

31
47

✓

CLEM −10.5

–

–

Final

Illinois@Wisconsin

16%
84%

14
31

✓

WIS −16.7

–

–

Final

Tulsa@Marshall

65%
35%

45
38

✓

TLSA −6.1

–

–

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Middle Tennessee

59%
41%

31
17

✓

ULM −3.5

–

–

Final

Iowa State@#24TCUUpset

24%
76%

37
23

✗

TCU −11.8

–

–

Final

#16Oklahoma@#22Texas Tech

47%
53%

41
20

✗

TTU −1.2

–

–

Final

#23Michigan@Purdue

53%
47%

44
13

✓

MICH −1.0

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@Idaho

70%
30%

18
26

✗

NMSU −8.8

–

–

Final

Tulane@Louisiana

4.8%
95%

13
41

✓

UL −27.7

–

–

Final

Texas State@New Mexico

28%
72%

14
35

✓

UNM −9.7

–

–

Final

Washington State@Oregon State

13%
87%

6
19

✓

ORST −18.6

–

–

Prime time 11 games

Final

Fresno State@Colorado State

77%
23%

28
7

✓

FRES −12.2

–

–

Final

Vanderbilt@Missouri

30%
70%

19
15

✗

MIZ −9.1

–

–

Final

#5Texas A&M@Ole Miss

81%
19%

30
27

✓

TA&M −14.5

–

–

Final

Rice@Memphis

64%
36%

10
14

✗

RICE −5.7

–

–

Final

North Texas@Houston

30%
70%

21
44

✓

HOU −9.1

–

–

Final

#14West Virginia@#6Texas

34%
66%

48
45

✗

TEX −7.1

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Cincinnati

12%
88%

14
52

✓

CIN −19.8

–

–

Final

UNLV@Louisiana Tech

4.9%
95%

31
58

✓

LT −27.6

–

–

Final

Wyoming@Nevada

15%
85%

28
35

✓

NEV −17.2

–

–

Final

#4Georgia@#3South Carolina

40%
60%

7
35

✓

SC −4.5

–

–

Final

Miami (FL)@#7Notre Dame

21%
79%

3
41

✓

ND −13.7

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

#25UCLA@CaliforniaUpset

64%
36%

17
43

✗

UCLA −5.9

–

–

Final

Washington@#2Oregon

8.0%
92%

21
52

✓

ORE −23.3

–

–

Sun, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final

Hawaii@San Diego State

22%
78%

14
52

✓

SDSU −13.1

–

–

Final

#10Florida State@NC StateUpset

72%
28%

16
17

✗

FSU −9.7

–

–

Final

#21Nebraska@#20Ohio State

41%
59%

38
63

✓

OSU −4.0

–

–

Final

SMU@UTEP

46%
54%

17
0

✗

UTEP −1.8

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 6 · 3:00 PM ET	SE Louisiana vs UAB	UAB −28.5	96%