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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 72 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 92

Wilder than 92% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 13.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthern Arizona over UNLV2.4% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Arkansas11% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upIllinois State over Eastern Michigan12% chance · won 31-14

Upsets

Fri, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@Cincinnati
16%
84%
10
34
✓
CIN −15.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
NC State@UConn
25%
75%
10
7
✗
CONN −9.8
–
–
Final
UCF@#13Ohio State
28%
72%
16
31
✓
OSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Tulsa
11%
89%
10
45
✓
TLSA −18.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@TempleUpset
13%
87%
36
27
✗
TEM −17.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Virginia
45%
55%
16
17
✓
UVA −1.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@Mississippi State
28%
72%
10
28
✓
MSST −8.3
–
–
Final
#15Miami (FL)@#19Kansas State
41%
59%
13
52
✓
KSU −2.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@#18South Carolina
20%
80%
10
48
✓
SC −12.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Clemson
18%
82%
27
52
✓
CLEM −13.7
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Purdue@#6Notre Dame
11%
89%
17
20
✓
ND −18.6
–
–
Final
Indiana@UMass
27%
73%
45
6
✗
MASS −9.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Michigan
22%
78%
25
31
✓
MICH −11.6
–
–
Final
#7USCvsSyracuse
86%
14%
42
29
✓
USC −16.9
–
–
Final
Florida@Texas A&M
40%
60%
20
17
✗
TA&M −3.6
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#1Alabama
2.1%
98%
0
35
✓
ALA −31.6
–
–
Final
#17Michigan State@Central Michigan
88%
12%
41
7
✓
MSU −18.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
37%
63%
9
6
✗
IOWA −4.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Kansas
37%
63%
25
24
✗
KU −4.7
–
–
Final
USF@Nevada
31%
69%
32
31
✗
NEV −7.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Wake Forest
55%
45%
27
28
✗
UNC −2.4
–
–
Final
#23Wisconsin@Oregon StateUpset
60%
40%
7
10
✗
WIS −4.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Wyoming
59%
41%
34
31
✓
TOL −4.2
–
–
Final
Akron@FIU
10%
90%
38
41
✓
FIU −19.2
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#3Oregon
4.2%
96%
25
42
✓
ORE −26.5
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroevs#9ArkansasUpset
11%
89%
34
31
✗
ARK −18.4
–
–
Final
Washington@#2LSU
9.6%
90%
3
41
✓
LSU −19.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Ole Miss
38%
62%
10
28
✓
MISS −4.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@Bowling Green
3.4%
97%
13
21
✓
BGSU −28.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Ohio
22%
78%
24
51
✓
OHIO −11.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Texas State
56%
44%
58
10
✓
TTU −2.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
5.4%
95%
28
33
✓
ARST −24.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Middle Tennessee
41%
59%
17
31
✓
MTSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
50%
50%
37
24
✓
UL −0.6
–
–
Final
Army@San Diego State
30%
70%
7
42
✓
SDSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Kentucky
31%
69%
14
47
✓
UK −7.3
–
–
Final
#16Georgia@#24Missouri
46%
54%
41
20
✗
MIZ −1.0
–
–
Final
#12Nebraska@UCLAUpset
57%
43%
30
36
✗
NEB −3.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Illinois@Arizona State
38%
62%
14
45
✓
ASU −4.3
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma State@ArizonaUpset
75%
25%
38
59
✗
OKST −10.8
–
–
Final
Duke@#10Stanford
15%
85%
13
50
✓
STAN −15.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah@Utah State
45%
55%
20
27
✓
USU −1.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Northwestern
44%
56%
13
23
✓
NU −1.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Houston
34%
66%
56
49
✗
HOU −5.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico@#20Texas
6.5%
94%
0
45
✓
TEX −23.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · 5:00 PM ET Nicholls vs South Alabama South Alabama −16.8 87%
Sun, Sep 9 · TBD UC Davis at San Jose State San Jose State −31.5 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:00 PM ET Southern Utah at California California −37.3 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET North Dakota State vs Colorado State North Dakota State −10.4 74%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Colorado Colorado −8.0 71%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET Savannah State at #22 Florida State Florida State −39.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Presbyterian at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −38.8 99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:30 PM ET Missouri State at Louisville Louisville −22.3 93%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Maine at Boston College Boston College −31.7 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 12:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Minnesota Minnesota −23.3 94%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:30 PM ET Howard vs Rutgers Rutgers −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −24.9 95%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #5 Oklahoma Oklahoma −49.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at North Texas North Texas −19.5 90%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:00 PM ET Weber State at #25 BYU BYU −46.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:30 PM ET Austin Peay at #21 Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −52.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Washington State Washington State −26.4 96%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Marshall Marshall −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 6:00 PM ET Morgan State at Buffalo Buffalo −31.3 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 1:00 PM ET Illinois State at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −17.5 88%
Sat, Sep 8 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at UNLV UNLV −30.4 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −48.5 >99%
Sun, Sep 9 · TBD Stephen F. Austin at SMU SMU −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at TCU TCU −44.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 8 · 4:00 PM ET Georgia State at Tennessee Tennessee −21.2 92%
Sat, Sep 8 · 2:00 PM ET East Texas A&M at UTSA UTSA −8.7 72%
Sat, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Western Michigan Western Michigan −33.6 98%