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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 76 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 91

Wilder than 91% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 17.0 expected

  • Biggest shockYoungstown State over Pittsburgh1.7% chance · won 31-17
  • Runner-upUT Martin over Memphis2.9% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upTexas State over Houston6.2% chance · won 30-13

Upsets

Thu, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 5 games

Final
#17South Carolina@Vanderbilt
52%
48%
17
13
✓
SC −1.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Akron
74%
26%
56
14
✓
UCF −10.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
38%
62%
26
37
✓
BALL −4.0
–
–
Final
UMass@UConn
39%
61%
0
37
✓
CONN −3.6
–
–
Final
UCLA@Rice
51%
49%
49
24
✓
UCLA −0.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Washington State@BYU
30%
70%
6
30
✓
BYU −7.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@UNLV
56%
44%
30
27
✓
MINN −2.9
–
–

Fri, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
NC StatevsTennessee
51%
49%
21
35
✗
NCSU −1.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@#6Stanford
9.9%
90%
17
20
✓
STAN −19.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final
#18Notre DamevsNavy
63%
37%
50
10
✓
ND −5.4
–
–
Final
Troy@UAB
44%
56%
39
29
✗
UAB −1.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#19Georgia
15%
85%
23
45
✓
UGA −15.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Syracuse
47%
53%
42
41
✗
SYR −0.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio State
27%
73%
10
56
✓
OSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@Penn State
35%
65%
24
14
✗
PSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@West Virginia
24%
76%
34
69
✓
WVU −10.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Illinois
39%
61%
7
24
✓
ILL −4.0
–
–
Final
UTSA@South Alabama
33%
67%
33
31
✗
USA −6.2
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
Nevada@California
40%
60%
31
24
✗
CAL −3.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Florida
24%
76%
14
27
✓
FLA −10.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Iowa State
52%
48%
23
38
✗
TLSA −1.5
–
–
Final
#13Miami (FL)@Boston College
61%
39%
41
32
✓
MIA −4.7
–
–
Final
#23Southern Miss@NebraskaUpset
43%
57%
20
49
✓
NEB −2.2
–
–
Final
IowavsNorthern Illinois
49%
51%
18
17
✗
IOWA −0.1
–
–
Final
Colorado StatevsColorado
42%
58%
22
17
✗
COLO −2.7
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
ClemsonvsAuburn
52%
48%
26
19
✓
CLEM −1.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@#2LSU
9.1%
91%
14
41
✓
LSU −20.3
–
–
Final
FIU@Duke
48%
52%
26
46
✓
DUKE −0.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#12USC
21%
79%
10
49
✓
USC −12.0
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Toledo@Arizona
49%
51%
17
24
✓
TOL −0.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Washington
41%
59%
12
21
✓
WASH −2.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#4Oregon
18%
82%
34
57
✓
ORE −13.6
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma@UTEP
75%
25%
24
7
✓
OU −10.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#5Boise State@#21Michigan State
55%
45%
13
17
✗
BOIS −2.6
–
–

Sun, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
36%
64%
14
32
✓
LOU −5.2
–
–
Final
SMU@#25Baylor
31%
69%
24
59
✓
BAY −7.3
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Texas State@#9HoustonUpset
6.2%
94%
30
13
✗
HOU −23.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#24Texas
24%
76%
17
37
✓
TEX −10.6
–
–
Final
#11Michiganvs#1Alabama
32%
68%
14
41
✓
ALA −6.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Tulane
71%
29%
24
12
✓
RUTG −9.2
–
–

Tue, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Georgia Tech@#20Virginia Tech
32%
68%
17
20
✓
VT −6.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 30 · 10:30 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona State Arizona State −35.1 99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 9:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Idaho Idaho −11.3 78%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD Sacramento State at New Mexico State Sacramento State −0.4 50%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:15 PM ET Northern Colorado at Utah Utah −39.7 >99%
Fri, Aug 31 · TBD Southern Utah at Utah State Utah State −25.4 95%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Central Michigan Central Michigan −34.7 99%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Towson at Kent State Kent State −31.5 98%
Thu, Aug 30 · 7:30 PM ET McNeese at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −22.5 93%
Fri, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Villanova at Temple Temple −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Wagner at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −13.2 81%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at #10 Arkansas Arkansas −14.8 84%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Murray State at #15 Florida State Florida State −47.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Chattanooga at USF USF −37.6 99%
Sun, Sep 2 · TBD Indiana State at Indiana Indiana −25.4 95%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −29.3 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:00 PM ET William & Mary at Maryland Maryland −26.1 96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at #22 Missouri Missouri −38.8 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Ole Miss Ole Miss −22.9 93%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:00 PM ET Appalachian State at East Carolina East Carolina −4.0 62%
Sat, Sep 1 · 12:30 PM ET Elon at North Carolina North Carolina −33.6 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:30 PM ET Liberty at Wake Forest Wake Forest −8.7 72%
Sat, Sep 1 · 5:00 PM ET Southern at New Mexico New Mexico −12.5 80%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Savannah State at #3 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −36.1 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 6:30 PM ET Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −32.9 98%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET UT Martin at Memphis Memphis −29.2 97%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:00 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at #8 Wisconsin Wisconsin −37.1 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 10:00 PM ET Weber State at Fresno State Fresno State −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Lamar at Louisiana Louisiana −21.6 92%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Jackson State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −27.1 96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 2:00 PM ET Idaho State at Air Force Air Force −39.4 99%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET South Dakota State at Kansas Kansas −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:10 PM ET Missouri State at Kansas State Kansas State −15.0 84%
Sat, Sep 1 · 3:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Purdue Purdue −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Texas Tech Texas Tech −34.9 99%