The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 6

Wilder than 6% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 16.1 expected

  • Biggest shockUConn over Louisville20% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upWashington State over Washington26% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upTCU over Texas29% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Wed, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Akron@Toledo
4.7%
95%
23
35
✓
TOL −26.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
TCU@#19TexasUpset
29%
71%
20
13
✗
TEX −8.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Syracuse@Temple
59%
41%
38
20
✓
SYR −4.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Kent State
31%
69%
6
28
✓
KENT −7.6
–
–
Final
#21Nebraska@Iowa
74%
26%
13
7
✓
NEB −10.8
–
–
Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
73%
27%
31
24
✓
BALL −10.2
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
90%
9.7%
49
7
✓
NIU −21.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@East Carolina
31%
69%
59
65
✓
ECU −7.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
20%
80%
7
21
✓
BGSU −12.9
–
–
Final
#11LSU@Arkansas
73%
27%
20
13
✓
LSU −10.2
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Utah@Colorado
86%
14%
42
35
✓
UTAH −17.6
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@UMass
62%
38%
42
21
✓
CMU −5.4
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Iowa State
42%
58%
31
24
✗
ISU −2.8
–
–
Final
Washington@Washington State
74%
26%
28
31
✗
WASH −10.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
46%
54%
41
34
✗
ARIZ −1.0
–
–

Sat, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#9Georgia
14%
86%
10
42
✓
UGA −17.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
9.2%
91%
14
50
✓
NU −20.8
–
–
Final
UConn@LouisvilleUpset
20%
80%
23
20
✗
LOU −13.0
–
–
Final
#18Michigan@#16Ohio State
40%
60%
21
26
✓
OSU −3.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Pittsburgh
58%
42%
6
27
✗
RUTG −3.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Virginia Tech
18%
82%
14
17
✓
VT −14.1
–
–
Final
UAB@UCF
5.0%
95%
24
49
✓
UCF −26.0
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
32%
68%
35
56
✓
PUR −6.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
62%
38%
27
35
✗
TLSA −5.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Tennessee
18%
82%
17
37
✓
TENN −14.2
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Duke
63%
37%
52
45
✓
MIA −5.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Western Kentucky
23%
77%
24
25
✓
WKU −11.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@UTSA
37%
63%
31
38
✓
UTSA −4.6
–
–
Final
#25BaylorvsTexas Tech
58%
42%
52
45
✓
BAY −3.9
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Boston College@NC State
22%
78%
10
27
✓
NCSU −11.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@North Carolina
12%
88%
38
45
✓
UNC −18.3
–
–
Final
#2Oregon@#20Oregon State
71%
29%
48
24
✓
ORE −9.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@#24Utah State
0.5%
>99%
9
45
✓
USU −41.1
–
–
Final
#10Florida@#7Florida State
38%
62%
37
26
✗
FSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Minnesota
68%
32%
26
10
✓
MSU −8.1
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
74%
26%
55
21
✓
VAN −10.6
–
–
Final
BYU@New Mexico State
95%
5.0%
50
14
✓
BYU −26.8
–
–
Final
#8Oklahoma State@#6Oklahoma
39%
61%
48
51
✓
OU −4.0
–
–
Final
#22Wisconsin@Penn StateUpset
46%
54%
21
24
✓
PSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Tulane@Houston
14%
86%
17
40
✓
HOU −17.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Fresno State
14%
86%
15
48
✓
FRES −16.6
–
–
Final
Auburn@#1Alabama
1.7%
98%
0
49
✓
ALA −33.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Middle Tennessee
40%
60%
21
24
✓
MTSU −3.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Wyoming
73%
27%
42
28
✓
SDSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Memphis
45%
55%
24
42
✓
MEM −1.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana
7.9%
92%
30
52
✓
UL −22.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@FIU
65%
35%
23
17
✓
ULM −6.6
–
–
Final
#12Stanford@#23UCLA
54%
46%
35
17
✓
STAN −2.0
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Notre Dame@#15USC
53%
47%
22
13
✓
ND −1.6
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@San Jose State
47%
53%
43
52
✓
SJSU −0.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
51%
49%
10
48
✗
UNLV −1.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
USF@Cincinnati
19%
81%
10
27
✓
CIN −13.5
–
–

Sun, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
41%
59%
20
24
✓
CSU −3.1
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Ole Miss
55%
45%
24
41
✗
MSST −2.6
–
–
Final
#14South Carolina@#13Clemson
38%
62%
27
17
✗
CLEM −4.2
–
–
Final
Missouri@#3Texas A&M
10%
90%
29
59
✓
TA&M −19.8
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
50%
50%
33
24
✗
RICE −0.4
–
–