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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 44

Wilder than 44% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockCentral Michigan over Iowa11% chance · won 32-31
  • Runner-upOregon State over UCLA22% chance · won 27-20
  • Runner-upUNLV over Air Force22% chance · won 38-35

Upsets

Wed, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Kent State@Buffalo
37%
63%
23
7
✗
BUF −5.7
–
–

Thu, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
BYU@#8Boise State
19%
81%
6
7
✓
BOIS −14.5
–
–

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Kentucky@#20Florida
16%
84%
0
38
✓
FLA −16.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Miami (OH)
25%
75%
16
27
✓
M-OH −11.4
–
–
Final
UAB@#19Ohio State
3.5%
96%
15
29
✓
OSU −30.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Virginia Tech
22%
78%
0
37
✓
VT −12.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Wisconsin
15%
85%
26
37
✓
WIS −17.0
–
–
Final
Maryland@#13West Virginia
7.8%
92%
21
31
✓
WVU −23.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@IowaUpset
11%
89%
32
31
✗
IOWA −20.3
–
–
Final
Virginia@#25TCU
14%
86%
7
27
✓
TCU −18.1
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
64%
36%
39
0
✓
MISS −5.6
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
31%
69%
37
49
✓
WAKE −8.2
–
–
Final
UConn@Western Michigan
56%
44%
24
30
✗
CONN −2.2
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Miami (FL)@Georgia Tech
32%
68%
42
36
✗
GT −7.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#22UCLAUpset
22%
78%
27
20
✗
UCLA −12.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#24Michigan State
3.1%
97%
7
23
✓
MSU −31.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Carolina
32%
68%
6
27
✓
UNC −7.9
–
–
Final
Temple@Penn State
31%
69%
13
24
✓
PSU −8.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Rice
45%
55%
54
51
✗
RICE −2.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@Northern Illinois
19%
81%
23
30
✓
NIU −14.5
–
–
Final
Missouri@#4South Carolina
18%
82%
10
31
✓
SC −15.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington State
27%
73%
35
34
✗
WSU −10.2
–
–
Final
USF@Ball State
57%
42%
27
31
✗
USF −3.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Idaho
78%
22%
40
37
✓
WYO −12.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#1Alabama
0.1%
>99%
7
40
✓
ALA −51.9
–
–
Final
California@#12USC
14%
86%
9
27
✓
USC −17.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Duke
8.8%
91%
14
38
✓
DUKE −22.5
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#2LSU@Auburn
85%
15%
12
10
✓
LSU −17.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Arkansas
38%
62%
35
26
✗
ARK −5.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
70%
30%
31
19
✓
USU −8.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Western Kentucky
46%
54%
17
42
✓
WKU −1.9
–
–
Final
Troy@North Texas
32%
68%
14
7
✗
UNT −7.9
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Mississippi State
3.1%
97%
10
30
✓
MSST −31.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@FIU
72%
28%
28
21
✓
LOU −9.4
–
–
Final
#21Michigan@#5Notre Dame
27%
73%
6
13
✓
ND −10.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Tennessee
6.7%
93%
26
47
✓
TENN −24.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#11Georgia
17%
83%
3
48
✓
UGA −15.7
–
–
Final
#10Kansas State@#15Oklahoma
41%
59%
24
19
✗
OU −3.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Utah@#23Arizona State
24%
76%
7
37
✓
ASU −12.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@UNLVUpset
78%
22%
35
38
✗
AF −12.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
47%
53%
69
24
✗
HAW −1.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@#7Oregon
24%
76%
0
49
✓
ORE −11.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#17Baylor@Louisiana-Monroe
74%
26%
47
42
✓
BAY −10.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
San Jose State@San Diego State
37%
63%
38
34
✗
SDSU −5.4
–
–
Final
Clemson@#16Florida State
27%
73%
37
49
✓
FSU −10.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Minnesota
36%
64%
10
17
✓
MINN −6.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
26%
74%
27
14
✗
NMSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Tulsa
32%
68%
26
27
✓
TLSA −8.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Illinois
53%
47%
52
24
✓
LT −1.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET South Dakota at Northwestern Northwestern −30.5 97%
Sat, Sep 22 · 6:00 PM ET The Citadel at NC State NC State −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET Idaho State at #18 Nebraska Nebraska −59.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 2:00 PM ET Norfolk State at Ohio Ohio −39.9 99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −30.5 97%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at #14 Texas A&M Texas A&M −57.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Texas State Texas State −32.0 97%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Arkansas State Arkansas State −21.4 90%
Sat, Sep 22 · 3:30 PM ET VMI at Navy Navy −31.9 97%
Sat, Sep 22 · 2:00 PM ET Northwestern (OK) at UTSA UTSA −13.1 78%
Sat, Sep 22 · 7:00 PM ET Coastal Carolina at Toledo Toledo −19.8 88%