The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 26

Wilder than 26% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 14.5 expected

  • Biggest shockStony Brook over Army6.1% chance · won 23-3
  • Runner-upMiddle Tennessee over Georgia Tech10% chance · won 49-28
  • Runner-upWashington over Stanford20% chance · won 17-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#5Stanford@WashingtonUpset
80%
20%
13
17
✗
STAN −14.0
–
–

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Buffalo@UConn
13%
87%
17
24
✓
CONN −18.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Georgia TechUpset
10%
90%
49
28
✗
GT −21.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Northwestern
22%
78%
29
44
✓
NU −12.7
–
–
Final
#19Baylor@#16West Virginia
38%
62%
63
70
✓
WVU −5.1
–
–
Final
Penn State@Illinois
58%
42%
35
7
✓
PSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@UCF
37%
63%
21
16
✗
UCF −5.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
41%
59%
13
31
✓
IOWA −3.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
51%
49%
43
45
✗
BALL −0.3
–
–
Final
NC State@Miami (FL)
32%
68%
37
44
✓
MIA −7.7
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#15Texas A&M
21%
79%
10
58
✓
TA&M −13.5
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
46%
54%
34
27
✗
WAKE −1.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Texas State
86%
14%
34
21
✓
NEV −17.6
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Air Force
22%
78%
21
42
✓
AF −12.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
56%
44%
56
49
✓
M-OH −2.6
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Tulsa@UAB
76%
24%
49
42
✓
TLSA −11.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Purdue
17%
83%
41
51
✓
PUR −15.8
–
–
Final
Troy@South Alabama
69%
31%
31
10
✓
TROY −8.3
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#4Georgia
17%
83%
44
51
✓
UGA −16.2
–
–
Final
Clemson@Boston College
64%
36%
45
31
✓
CLEM −6.1
–
–
Final
Ohio@UMass
87%
13%
37
34
✓
OHIO −18.7
–
–
Final
#20Ohio State@#25Michigan State
46%
54%
17
16
✗
MSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@North Carolina
2.0%
98%
0
66
✓
UNC −34.3
–
–
Final
HoustonvsRice
66%
34%
35
14
✓
HOU −6.6
–
–
Final
#24Louisiana Tech@Virginia
75%
25%
44
38
✓
LT −11.2
–
–
Final
Virginia TechvsCincinnati
48%
52%
24
27
✓
CIN −1.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Navy
58%
42%
12
0
✓
SJSU −3.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Northern Illinois
17%
83%
24
55
✓
NIU −15.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Tulane
80%
20%
63
10
✓
ULM −13.7
–
–
Final
#18Arizona State@California
68%
32%
27
17
✓
ASU −7.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Florida Atlantic
65%
35%
20
14
✓
UNT −6.2
–
–
Final
UCLA@Colorado
84%
16%
42
14
✓
UCLA −16.2
–
–
Final
#11Florida State@USF
73%
27%
30
17
✓
FSU −9.8
–
–
Final
#14Boise State@New Mexico
90%
10%
32
29
✓
BOIS −21.0
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
Texas Tech@Iowa State
55%
45%
24
13
✓
TTU −2.1
–
–
Final
#6South Carolina@Kentucky
83%
17%
38
17
✓
SC −15.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@East Carolina
32%
68%
18
28
✓
ECU −7.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Louisiana
31%
69%
20
48
✓
UL −8.5
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Arkansas State
46%
54%
26
13
✗
ARST −1.8
–
–
Final
#22TCU@SMU
78%
22%
24
16
✓
TCU −12.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
54%
46%
37
17
✓
TOL −1.4
–
–
Final
#8Texas@#10Oklahoma State
42%
58%
41
36
✗
OKST −3.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#1Alabama
2.2%
98%
14
33
✓
ALA −33.4
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Oregon State@Arizona
42%
58%
38
35
✗
ARIZ −3.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
33%
67%
40
52
✓
FRES −7.3
–
–
Final
#2Oregon@Washington State
93%
6.6%
51
26
✓
ORE −24.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Hawaii@BYU
14%
86%
0
47
✓
BYU −18.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Wisconsin@#21Nebraska
31%
69%
27
30
✓
NEB −8.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@New Mexico State
44%
56%
35
14
✗
NMSU −2.4
–
–
Final
UNLV@Utah State
10%
90%
13
35
✓
USU −21.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@Southern Miss
68%
32%
21
17
✓
LOU −7.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · 7:00 PM ET Towson at #3 LSU LSU −63.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 29 · 3:30 PM ET Rhode Island at Bowling Green Bowling Green −28.2 96%
Sat, Sep 29 · 12:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Army Army −25.7 94%