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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 34

Wilder than 34% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 16.1 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over Oregon16% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upEastern Michigan over Western Michigan17% chance · won 29-23
  • Runner-upBaylor over Kansas State22% chance · won 52-24

Upsets

Wed, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ohio@Ball State
41%
59%
27
52
✓
BALL −3.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
29%
71%
24
31
✓
NIU −8.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
North Carolina@Virginia
67%
33%
37
13
✓
UNC −7.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
46%
54%
34
24
✗
FAU −1.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Air Force
13%
87%
7
21
✓
AF −17.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
#9Florida State@Maryland
92%
8.5%
41
14
✓
FSU −22.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Michigan State
34%
66%
23
20
✗
MSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Iowa@#19Michigan
13%
87%
17
42
✓
MICH −17.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Bowling Green
46%
54%
31
24
✗
BGSU −1.1
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulsa
44%
56%
21
23
✓
TLSA −1.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Penn State
13%
87%
22
45
✓
PSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Houston@Marshall
50%
50%
41
44
✗
HOU −0.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Army
53%
47%
63
32
✓
TEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Cincinnati
36%
64%
10
3
✗
CIN −5.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Mississippi State
34%
66%
14
45
✓
MSST −5.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Boston College
68%
32%
30
23
✓
VT −8.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Central Michigan
45%
55%
16
30
✓
CMU −1.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Colorado
84%
16%
38
3
✓
WASH −16.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@UABUpset
22%
78%
46
9
✗
UAB −11.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western MichiganUpset
17%
83%
29
23
✗
WMU −14.9
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
Washington State@Arizona State
8.3%
92%
7
46
✓
ASU −21.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UMass
64%
36%
29
19
✓
BUF −6.1
–
–
Final
USF@Miami (FL)
30%
70%
9
40
✓
MIA −7.9
–
–
Final
#14USC@#24UCLA
54%
46%
28
38
✗
USC −2.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@South Alabama
70%
30%
20
12
✓
MTSU −8.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
24%
76%
24
42
✓
GT −10.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#16Boise State
3.3%
97%
14
42
✓
BOIS −29.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#6Notre Dame
3.4%
97%
0
38
✓
ND −28.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#10LSU
12%
88%
35
41
✓
LSU −18.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#21Nebraska
12%
88%
14
38
✓
NEB −18.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@New Mexico
67%
33%
31
24
✓
NEV −7.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#12Oklahoma State
23%
77%
21
59
✓
OKST −11.6
–
–
Final
NC State@#13Clemson
12%
88%
48
62
✓
CLEM −18.6
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
59%
41%
14
36
✗
SMU −4.1
–
–
Final
#17Ohio State@#20Wisconsin
43%
57%
21
14
✗
WIS −2.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Illinois
62%
38%
20
17
✓
PUR −5.5
–
–
Final
Texas State@Navy
14%
86%
10
21
✓
NAVY −16.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Troy
60%
40%
41
34
✓
ARST −4.5
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
78%
22%
28
23
✓
ECU −12.8
–
–
Final
#23Utah State@Louisiana Tech
44%
56%
48
41
✗
LT −1.8
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana-Monroe
23%
77%
16
42
✓
ULM −11.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UNLV
50%
50%
28
23
✗
WYO −0.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@Idaho
72%
28%
34
27
✓
UTSA −9.8
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#3Kansas State@BaylorUpset
78%
22%
24
52
✗
KSU −12.7
–
–
Final
#15Stanford@#2OregonUpset
16%
84%
17
14
✗
ORE −15.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Southern Miss
52%
48%
34
33
✓
UTEP −1.2
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Arizona@Utah
49%
51%
34
24
✗
ARIZ −0.2
–
–
Final
#25BYU@San Jose StateUpset
55%
45%
14
20
✗
BYU −2.5
–
–
Final
California@#22Oregon State
16%
84%
14
62
✓
ORST −15.4
–
–

Sun, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Syracuse@Missouri
32%
68%
31
27
✗
MIZ −7.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Vanderbilt
38%
62%
18
41
✓
VAN −4.5
–
–
Final
#5Oklahoma@West Virginia
75%
25%
50
49
✓
OU −11.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana
34%
66%
27
31
✓
UL −6.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas
70%
30%
51
23
✓
ISU −8.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 17 · 2:00 PM ET Alabama A&M at Auburn Auburn −21.6 92%
Sat, Nov 17 · 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at #7 Florida Florida −29.1 97%
Sat, Nov 17 · 1:30 PM ET Georgia Southern at #8 Georgia Georgia −22.9 93%
Sat, Nov 17 · 7:30 PM ET Samford at Kentucky Kentucky −25.8 95%
Sat, Nov 17 · 3:30 PM ET Sam Houston at #4 Texas A&M Texas A&M −38.8 99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 12:21 PM ET Western Carolina at #1 Alabama Alabama −78.6 >99%
Sat, Nov 17 · 1:00 PM ET Wofford at #11 South Carolina South Carolina −47.3 >99%