The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2012

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 35

Wilder than 35% of weeks in the archive.

11 upsets against 12.4 expected

  • Biggest shockCal Poly over Wyoming3.6% chance · won 24-22
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over Virginia Tech25% chance · won 35-17
  • Runner-upWestern Kentucky over Kentucky25% chance · won 32-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Rutgers@USF
36%
64%
23
13
✗
USF −5.2
–
–

Fri, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington State@UNLV
56%
44%
35
27
✓
WSU −2.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Wake Forest@#22Florida State
18%
82%
0
52
✓
FSU −13.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Minnesota
37%
63%
23
28
✓
MINN −4.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#19Nebraska
15%
86%
13
42
✓
NEB −16.0
–
–
Final
California@#11Ohio State
14%
86%
28
35
✓
OSU −16.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#16Oklahoma State
17%
83%
24
65
✓
OKST −14.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@PittsburghUpset
75%
25%
17
35
✗
VT −11.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Army
63%
37%
41
40
✓
NIU −5.6
–
–
Final
#24TCU@Kansas
80%
20%
20
6
✓
TCU −13.7
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Purdue
8.7%
91%
16
54
✓
PUR −20.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Auburn
33%
67%
28
31
✓
AUB −6.4
–
–
Final
UConn@Maryland
59%
41%
24
21
✓
CONN −4.1
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
#1Alabama@#20Arkansas
73%
27%
52
0
✓
ALA −10.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia Tech
26%
74%
20
56
✓
GT −9.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Northwestern
26%
74%
13
22
✓
NU −9.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Louisville
32%
68%
34
39
✓
LOU −6.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Michigan
5.7%
94%
13
63
✓
MICH −24.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Penn State
26%
74%
7
34
✓
PSU −9.6
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@SMU
64%
36%
48
3
✓
TA&M −5.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Southern Miss
27%
73%
24
14
✗
USM −9.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#6Boise State
3.7%
96%
12
39
✓
BOIS −27.5
–
–
Final
FIU@UCF
13%
87%
20
33
✓
UCF −16.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@NC State
5.3%
95%
7
31
✓
NCSU −24.7
–
–
Final
Florida@Tennessee
37%
63%
37
20
✗
TENN −4.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Marshall
76%
24%
27
24
✓
OHIO −11.2
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Western Kentucky@Kentucky
25%
75%
32
31
✗
UK −9.7
–
–
Final
#17Arizona State@MissouriUpset
57%
43%
20
24
✗
ASU −3.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Memphis
46%
54%
48
30
✗
MEM −1.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@#5Kansas State
6.3%
94%
21
35
✓
KSU −23.4
–
–
Final
Rice@Louisiana Tech
12%
88%
37
56
✓
LT −17.8
–
–
Final
UAB@#10South Carolina
3.0%
97%
6
49
✓
SC −29.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Texas Tech
6.9%
93%
14
49
✓
TTU −22.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Toledo
16%
84%
15
27
✓
TOL −15.0
–
–
Final
#21Mississippi State@Troy
76%
24%
30
24
✓
MSST −11.4
–
–
Final
#7USC@#4Stanford
36%
64%
14
21
✓
STAN −5.1
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#8Georgia
1.2%
99%
20
56
✓
UGA −35.3
–
–
Final
#14Texas@Ole Miss
73%
27%
66
31
✓
TEX −9.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
BYU@Utah
48%
52%
21
24
✓
UTAH −0.1
–
–
Final
Houston@UCLA
24%
76%
6
37
✓
UCLA −10.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 7 games

Final
Colorado State@San Jose State
27%
73%
20
40
✓
SJSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Indiana
33%
67%
41
39
✗
IU −6.5
–
–
Final
Idaho@#2LSU
0.1%
>99%
14
63
✓
LSU −51.6
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@#13Michigan State
38%
62%
20
3
✗
MSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Wisconsin
27%
73%
14
16
✓
WIS −9.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Fresno State
28%
72%
14
69
✓
FRES −8.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
43%
57%
28
41
✓
UTEP −2.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · 10:30 PM ET South Carolina State at #25 Arizona Arizona −43.5 >99%
Sun, Sep 16 · TBD North Dakota at San Diego State San Diego State −35.7 99%
Sun, Sep 16 · 12:00 AM ET Lamar vs Hawaii Hawaii −22.7 93%
Sun, Sep 16 · TBD Western Illinois at Iowa State Iowa State −41.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Duke Duke −26.9 96%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Syracuse Syracuse −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Tulsa Tulsa −47.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:00 PM ET Furman at #23 Clemson Clemson −38.9 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:30 PM ET Presbyterian at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −45.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:05 PM ET Sam Houston vs #15 Baylor Baylor −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:00 PM ET Portland State at Washington Washington −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 4:30 PM ET James Madison vs #18 West Virginia West Virginia −14.0 82%
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at Illinois Illinois −38.1 99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:30 PM ET Morgan State at Akron Akron −30.1 97%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:00 PM ET Delaware State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −33.6 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM ET UTSA at Georgia State Georgia State −4.2 62%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:30 PM ET Northern Iowa at Iowa Iowa −30.7 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 12:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −33.2 98%
Sat, Sep 15 · 7:05 PM ET Northwestern State at Nevada Nevada −47.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 3:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #3 Oregon Oregon −53.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 15 · 6:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Wyoming Wyoming −27.8 96%