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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 15 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 14 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

8 upsets against 4.7 expected

  • Biggest shockOklahoma over Oklahoma State22% chance · won 33-24
  • Runner-upStanford over Arizona State35% chance · won 38-14
  • Runner-upMichigan State over Ohio State36% chance · won 34-24

Upsets

Thu, Dec 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22Louisville@Cincinnati
56%
44%
31
24
✓
LOU −3.1
–
–

Fri, Dec 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Bowling GreenvsNorthern Illinois
45%
55%
47
27
✗
NIU −1.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
#20Oklahoma@#5Oklahoma StateUpset
22%
78%
33
24
✗
OKST −11.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@Rice
55%
45%
24
41
✗
MRSH −2.6
–
–
Final
UCF@SMU
80%
20%
17
13
✓
UCF −13.8
–
–
Final
Memphis@UConn
57%
43%
10
45
✗
MEM −3.2
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Texas@#3Baylor
14%
86%
10
30
✓
BAY −17.2
–
–
Final
#8Missourivs#17Auburn
60%
40%
42
59
✗
MIZ −4.5
–
–

Prime time 5 games

Final
USF@Rutgers
26%
74%
6
31
✓
RUTG −9.6
–
–
Final
#9Stanford@#6Arizona State
35%
65%
38
14
✗
ASU −5.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
57%
43%
8
30
✗
UL −3.3
–
–
Final
Dukevs#1Florida State
6.1%
94%
7
45
✓
FSU −24.4
–
–
Final
#7Ohio Statevs#18Michigan State
64%
36%
24
34
✗
OSU −6.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#25Utah State@Fresno StateUpset
49%
51%
17
24
✓
USU −0.1
–
–