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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 14

Wilder than 14% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 16.0 expected

  • Biggest shockUSF over Cincinnati17% chance · won 26-20
  • Runner-upBYU over Utah State29% chance · won 31-14
  • Runner-upFIU over Southern Miss30% chance · won 24-23

Upsets

Thu, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Texas@Iowa State
51%
49%
31
30
✓
TEX −0.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana-Monroe
52%
48%
31
10
✓
WKU −0.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#10UCLA@Utah
59%
41%
34
27
✓
UCLA −3.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Nevada@San Diego State
46%
54%
44
51
✓
SDSU −1.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Air Force@Navy
15%
86%
10
28
✓
NAVY −17.7
–
–
Final
Maryland@#3Florida State
15%
85%
0
63
✓
FSU −17.5
–
–
Final
#19Penn State@IndianaUpset
68%
32%
24
44
✗
PSU −7.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Nebraska
27%
73%
19
39
✓
NEB −10.3
–
–
Final
#18Louisville@Temple
89%
11%
30
7
✓
LOU −20.4
–
–
Final
Ball State@Virginia
59%
41%
48
27
✓
BALL −3.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Buffalo
20%
80%
14
42
✓
BUF −14.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
32%
68%
26
14
✗
IOWA −7.8
–
–
Final
#25Texas Tech@Kansas
78%
22%
54
16
✓
TTU −12.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@SMU
67%
33%
55
52
✓
RUTG −7.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#2Alabama
<0.1%
>99%
3
45
✓
ALA −59.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Virginia Tech
27%
73%
17
27
✓
VT −10.2
–
–
Final
Army@Boston College
30%
70%
27
48
✓
BC −9.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
39%
61%
21
9
✗
M-OH −4.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Troy
34%
66%
33
34
✓
TROY −7.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@Marshall
21%
79%
10
34
✓
MRSH −13.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
55%
45%
43
3
✓
OHIO −1.9
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@UAB
46%
54%
37
23
✗
UAB −1.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
10%
90%
20
47
✓
TOL −21.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan
22%
78%
13
42
✓
MICH −13.0
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
64%
36%
13
28
✗
NCSU −5.6
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@Syracuse
58%
42%
49
14
✓
CLEM −3.3
–
–
Final
UMass@Bowling Green
3.4%
97%
7
28
✓
BGSU −30.4
–
–
Final
#24Kansas State@#17Oklahoma State
33%
67%
29
33
✓
OKST −7.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Tulsa
49%
51%
30
27
✗
TLSA −0.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
58%
42%
38
24
✓
NIU −3.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#21Miami (FL)
28%
72%
30
45
✓
MIA −9.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Middle Tennessee
67%
33%
24
17
✓
ECU −7.1
–
–
Final
#8Georgia@Tennessee
72%
28%
34
31
✓
UGA −9.6
–
–
Final
North Texas@Tulane
52%
48%
21
24
✗
UNT −0.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
56%
44%
44
22
✓
WSU −2.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Southern Miss
30%
70%
24
23
✗
USM −8.8
–
–
Final
#20UCF@Memphis
79%
21%
24
17
✓
UCF −13.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Idaho
95%
5.4%
61
14
✓
FRES −26.5
–
–
Final
#1Oregon@Colorado
97%
3.4%
57
16
✓
ORE −30.2
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Ole Miss@Auburn
40%
60%
22
30
✓
AUB −4.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#11Florida
15%
85%
10
30
✓
FLA −17.0
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@USFUpset
83%
17%
20
26
✗
CIN −15.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
18%
82%
17
66
✓
UNM −15.6
–
–
Final
TCU@#9Oklahoma
15%
85%
17
20
✓
OU −17.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
32%
68%
24
48
✓
UL −7.8
–
–
Final
#7LSU@Mississippi State
62%
38%
59
26
✓
LSU −5.1
–
–
Final
#14Arizona StatevsNotre DameUpset
65%
35%
34
37
✗
ASU −6.4
–
–
Final
Missouri@Vanderbilt
49%
51%
51
28
✗
VAN −0.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#15South Carolina
8.7%
91%
28
35
✓
SC −22.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
44%
56%
38
35
✗
UTEP −2.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#22Washington@#5Stanford
25%
75%
28
31
✓
STAN −11.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
BYU@#16Utah StateUpset
29%
71%
31
14
✗
USU −9.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
71%
29%
37
27
✓
SJSU −9.0
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#13Ohio State@Northwestern
54%
46%
40
30
✓
OSU −1.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#6Baylor
8.7%
91%
42
73
✓
BAY −22.7
–
–