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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 61

Wilder than 61% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 14.4 expected

  • Biggest shockPenn State over Wisconsin9.7% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Louisiana15% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upSouthern Miss over UAB17% chance · won 62-27

Upsets

Wed, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
1.6%
98%
14
33
✓
NIU −34.1
–
–

Thu, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Texas Tech@Texas
33%
67%
16
41
✓
TEX −6.4
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Mississippi State
48%
52%
10
17
✓
MSST −0.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Iowa@Nebraska
44%
56%
38
17
✗
NEB −2.1
–
–
Final
SMU@Houston
15%
85%
0
34
✓
HOU −15.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Marshall
49%
51%
28
59
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Toledo@AkronUpset
75%
25%
29
31
✗
TOL −11.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
1.6%
98%
14
55
✓
BALL −34.2
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
50%
50%
24
7
✗
BGSU −0.4
–
–
Final
UMass@Ohio
7.9%
92%
23
51
✓
OHIO −22.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
16%
84%
10
42
✓
CMU −15.7
–
–
Final
Texas State@Troy
29%
71%
28
42
✓
TROY −8.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#11LSU
4.0%
96%
27
31
✓
LSU −27.8
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
3.4%
97%
6
21
✓
FAU −28.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
69%
31%
52
62
✗
FRES −8.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Pittsburgh
53%
47%
41
31
✓
MIA −1.7
–
–
Final
Washington State@#22Washington
14%
86%
17
27
✓
WASH −16.6
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@#25UCF
2.8%
97%
20
23
✓
UCF −30.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Rutgers@UConn
64%
36%
17
28
✗
RUTG −6.2
–
–
Final
#1Florida State@Florida
85%
15%
37
7
✓
FSU −16.8
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#18Michigan State
15%
85%
3
14
✓
MSU −15.8
–
–
Final
#6Ohio State@Michigan
70%
30%
42
41
✓
OSU −8.7
–
–
Final
Duke@North Carolina
36%
64%
27
25
✗
UNC −5.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Memphis
25%
75%
41
21
✗
MEM −10.1
–
–
Final
#16Kansas State@Kansas
92%
7.8%
31
10
✓
KSU −23.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Vanderbilt
16%
84%
21
23
✓
VAN −15.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
49%
51%
41
21
✗
PK
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UABUpset
17%
83%
62
27
✗
UAB −14.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
13%
87%
13
58
✓
CSU −17.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@Utah
8.2%
92%
17
24
✓
UTAH −21.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
4.8%
95%
7
35
✓
USU −26.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Georgia State
81%
19%
38
17
✓
USA −14.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Tulsa
66%
34%
42
10
✓
UNT −7.0
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Tulane@Rice
25%
75%
13
17
✓
RICE −10.2
–
–
Final
#23BYU@Nevada
83%
17%
28
23
✓
BYU −15.7
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@#19Auburn
74%
26%
28
34
✗
ALA −10.5
–
–
Final
#14Georgia@Georgia Tech
60%
40%
41
34
✓
UGA −4.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
10.0%
90%
36
56
✓
IU −20.1
–
–
Final
Idaho@New Mexico State
30%
70%
16
24
✓
NMSU −7.8
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
37%
63%
31
34
✓
SYR −4.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
81%
19%
16
6
✓
VT −14.3
–
–
Final
Penn State@#8WisconsinUpset
9.7%
90%
31
24
✗
WIS −20.3
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
60%
40%
37
34
✓
NU −4.6
–
–
Final
#3Baylor@TCU
88%
12%
41
38
✓
BAY −18.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTSA
21%
79%
10
30
✓
UTSA −12.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@Middle Tennessee
12%
88%
17
48
✓
MTSU −18.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Western Kentucky
39%
61%
31
34
✓
WKU −4.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@West Virginia
36%
64%
52
44
✗
WVU −5.4
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#12Texas A&M@#9Missouri
36%
64%
21
28
✓
MIZ −5.2
–
–
Final
#21UCLA@#20USC
39%
61%
35
14
✗
USC −3.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@#7Arizona State
20%
80%
21
58
✓
ASU −12.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
New Mexico@Boise State
4.3%
96%
17
45
✓
BOIS −27.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@UNLV
50%
50%
19
45
✗
SDSU −0.6
–
–
Final
Army@Hawaii
40%
60%
42
49
✓
HAW −3.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Oregon State@#4Oregon
7.2%
93%
35
36
✓
ORE −23.0
–
–

Sun, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Notre Dame@#10Stanford
21%
79%
20
27
✓
STAN −12.4
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
57%
43%
27
14
✓
TENN −3.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@LouisianaUpset
15%
85%
31
28
✗
UL −16.2
–
–
Final
#15Clemson@#13South Carolina
38%
62%
17
31
✓
SC −4.5
–
–