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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 11

Wilder than 11% of weeks in the archive.

9 upsets against 12.3 expected

  • Biggest shockVanderbilt over Florida20% chance · won 34-17
  • Runner-upSan Diego State over San Jose State24% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upVirginia Tech over Miami (FL)27% chance · won 42-24

Upsets

Tue, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
90%
10%
45
3
✓
BGSU −20.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
43%
57%
3
30
✓
BUF −2.1
–
–

Wed, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
5.5%
94%
24
44
✓
BALL −25.3
–
–

Thu, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
#19Oklahoma@#4Baylor
16%
84%
12
41
✓
BAY −15.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana
17%
83%
36
41
✓
UL −14.6
–
–
Final
#3Oregon@#8Stanford
65%
35%
20
26
✗
ORE −6.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#18Louisville@UConn
95%
5.0%
31
10
✓
LOU −26.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
35%
65%
37
45
✓
UNM −5.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#22FloridaUpset
20%
80%
34
17
✗
FLA −13.1
–
–
Final
TCU@Iowa State
58%
42%
21
17
✓
TCU −3.6
–
–
Final
#9Missouri@Kentucky
86%
14%
48
17
✓
MIZ −17.8
–
–
Final
Penn State@Minnesota
48%
52%
10
24
✓
MINN −0.3
–
–
Final
#2Florida State@Wake Forest
96%
4.0%
59
3
✓
FSU −28.5
–
–
Final
UAB@Marshall
8.5%
92%
14
56
✓
MRSH −21.6
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Army
64%
36%
21
17
✓
WKU −6.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Cincinnati
20%
80%
25
28
✓
CIN −13.2
–
–
Final
Iowa@Purdue
85%
15%
38
14
✓
IOWA −16.8
–
–
Final
Auburn@Tennessee
61%
39%
55
23
✓
AUB −4.9
–
–
Final
#16Kansas State@Texas Tech
54%
46%
49
26
✓
KSU −1.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Ole Miss
15%
85%
24
34
✓
MISS −16.0
–
–
Final
Virginia@North Carolina
17%
83%
14
45
✓
UNC −14.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
52%
48%
32
35
✗
WMU −1.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@UTSA
39%
61%
7
10
✓
UTSA −3.8
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
#23USC@California
90%
9.6%
62
28
✓
USC −21.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
32%
68%
17
38
✓
CSU −6.9
–
–
Final
Illinois@Indiana
23%
77%
35
52
✓
IU −11.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Maryland
43%
57%
20
3
✗
MD −2.3
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Michigan
31%
69%
17
13
✗
MICH −7.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@New Mexico State
89%
11%
48
34
✓
BC −19.9
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#6Texas A&M
11%
89%
41
51
✓
TA&M −19.5
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
6.8%
93%
7
41
✓
UNT −23.5
–
–
Final
#15BYU@#12Wisconsin
36%
64%
17
27
✓
WIS −5.4
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Navy
12%
88%
28
42
✓
NAVY −18.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
14%
86%
24
58
✓
ECU −16.6
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
25%
75%
20
38
✓
DUKE −10.3
–
–
Final
Kansas@#11Oklahoma State
2.2%
98%
6
42
✓
OKST −32.0
–
–
Final
#7Arizona State@Utah
71%
29%
20
19
✓
ASU −9.4
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
11%
89%
0
48
✓
MTSU −18.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
Notre Dame@Pittsburgh
63%
37%
21
28
✗
ND −5.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@Washington
5.4%
95%
7
59
✓
WASH −25.4
–
–
Final
#10LSU@#1Alabama
18%
82%
17
38
✓
ALA −14.3
–
–
Final
#25Utah State@UNLV
90%
10%
28
24
✓
USU −20.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#21UCLA@Arizona
50%
50%
31
26
✗
UCLA −0.5
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wyoming
71%
29%
48
10
✓
FRES −9.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose StateUpset
24%
76%
34
30
✗
SJSU −10.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Texas@West Virginia
70%
30%
47
40
✓
TEX −8.7
–
–
Final
Houston@#20UCF
30%
70%
14
19
✓
UCF −8.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana Tech
13%
87%
13
36
✓
LT −17.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Miami (FL)
27%
73%
42
24
✗
MIA −9.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
46%
54%
42
14
✗
ULM −1.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 9 · 12:30 PM ET Appalachian State at #17 Georgia Georgia −24.1 94%
Sat, Nov 9 · 5:00 PM ET Old Dominion at Idaho Old Dominion −8.1 68%
Sat, Nov 9 · 4:30 PM ET UT Martin at Memphis Memphis −37.5 99%