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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 49

Wilder than 49% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 12.7 expected

  • Biggest shockIdaho over Temple17% chance · won 26-24
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Oklahoma State20% chance · won 30-21
  • Runner-upVirginia Tech over Georgia Tech24% chance · won 17-10

Upsets

Thu, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia Tech@#25Georgia TechUpset
24%
76%
17
10
✗
GT −12.0
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Tulsa
37%
63%
38
21
✗
TLSA −5.4
–
–

Fri, Sep 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#24Utah State@San Jose State
58%
42%
40
12
✓
USU −3.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@BYU
14%
86%
10
37
✓
BYU −18.1
–
–

Sat, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
#21Miami (FL)@USF
90%
9.5%
49
21
✓
MIA −21.6
–
–
Final
#7Oklahoma State@West VirginiaUpset
80%
20%
21
30
✗
OKST −13.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Illinois
13%
87%
14
50
✓
ILL −18.7
–
–
Final
#14South Carolina@#13UCF
37%
63%
28
25
✗
UCF −5.7
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Purdue
61%
39%
55
24
✓
NIU −4.7
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
22%
78%
17
48
✓
TCU −13.1
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Tennessee
12%
88%
24
31
✓
TENN −19.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@North Carolina
26%
74%
55
31
✗
UNC −10.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Pittsburgh
24%
76%
3
14
✓
PITT −12.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Western Kentucky
62%
38%
7
19
✗
NAVY −4.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
19%
81%
14
31
✓
BGSU −14.6
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Troy@Duke
27%
73%
31
38
✓
DUKE −10.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Oregon State
17%
83%
17
44
✓
ORST −16.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
30%
70%
24
31
✓
BALL −8.8
–
–
Final
UTEP@Colorado State
36%
64%
42
59
✓
CSU −6.0
–
–
Final
#6LSU@#8Georgia
39%
61%
41
44
✓
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Notre Dame
54%
46%
35
21
✓
OU −1.5
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Boston College
92%
8.5%
48
34
✓
FSU −22.6
–
–
Final
Iowa@Minnesota
42%
58%
23
7
✗
MINN −3.5
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@NC State
10.0%
90%
14
48
✓
NCSU −21.4
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#19Clemson
7.6%
92%
7
56
✓
CLEM −23.8
–
–
Final
UConn@Buffalo
46%
54%
12
41
✓
BUF −1.9
–
–
Final
ArmyvsLouisiana Tech
33%
67%
35
16
✗
LT −7.6
–
–
Final
Houston@UTSA
51%
49%
59
28
✓
HOU −0.3
–
–
Final
Temple@IdahoUpset
83%
17%
24
26
✗
TEM −15.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@#2Alabama
9.4%
91%
0
25
✓
ALA −22.0
–
–

Prime time 9 games

Final
#4Texas A&M@Arkansas
74%
26%
45
33
✓
TA&M −10.3
–
–
Final
#12Florida@Kentucky
76%
24%
24
7
✓
FLA −11.8
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Rice
21%
79%
14
18
✓
RICE −13.3
–
–
Final
#20Arizona@WashingtonUpset
43%
57%
13
31
✓
WASH −3.1
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Texas State
54%
46%
21
42
✗
WYO −1.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisiana-Monroe
29%
71%
31
14
✗
ULM −9.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
58%
42%
32
14
✓
KENT −3.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Missouri
17%
83%
19
41
✓
MIZ −16.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Vanderbilt
14%
86%
24
52
✓
VAN −18.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#11Stanford@Washington State
69%
31%
55
17
✓
STAN −8.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Boise State
7.4%
93%
7
60
✓
BOIS −24.1
–
–
Final
USC@#22Arizona State
35%
65%
41
62
✓
ASU −6.6
–
–
Final
California@#1Oregon
1.1%
99%
16
55
✓
ORE −38.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
78%
22%
42
37
✓
FRES −12.9
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
San Diego State@New Mexico State
68%
32%
26
16
✓
SDSU −7.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
27%
73%
56
42
✗
UNM −10.2
–
–
Final
#18Wisconsin@#15Ohio State
35%
65%
24
31
✓
OSU −6.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Nevada
22%
78%
42
45
✓
NEV −12.9
–
–