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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 60 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 75

Wilder than 75% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 11.9 expected

  • Biggest shockFordham over Temple2.8% chance · won 30-29
  • Runner-upBethune-Cookman over FIU11% chance · won 34-13
  • Runner-upTulane over Louisiana Tech22% chance · won 24-15

Upsets

Thu, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Troy@Arkansas State
32%
68%
34
41
✓
ARST −6.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Louisiana TechUpset
22%
78%
24
15
✗
LT −11.4
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
25%
75%
10
20
✓
TTU −9.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Bowling Green@Indiana
64%
36%
10
42
✗
BGSU −6.1
–
–
Final
Louisville@Kentucky
64%
36%
27
13
✓
LOU −6.0
–
–
Final
Akron@#7Michigan
2.5%
98%
24
28
✓
MICH −30.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@East Carolina
39%
61%
15
10
✗
ECU −3.8
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Nebraska
42%
58%
41
21
✗
NEB −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#10Oklahoma
9.5%
90%
20
51
✓
OU −19.9
–
–
Final
Georgia State@West Virginia
1.1%
99%
7
41
✓
WVU −35.7
–
–
Final
#6Stanford@Army
93%
6.9%
34
20
✓
STAN −23.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Arkansas
9.9%
90%
3
24
✓
ARK −19.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Wake Forest
48%
52%
21
19
✗
WAKE −0.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Pittsburgh
24%
76%
27
49
✓
PITT −10.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Rutgers
6.7%
93%
10
28
✓
RUTG −22.9
–
–

Afternoon 10 games

Final
Boston College@USC
14%
86%
7
35
✓
USC −16.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@#5Florida State
4.6%
95%
7
62
✓
FSU −25.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
45%
55%
38
14
✗
DUKE −1.2
–
–
Final
#1Alabama@#3Texas A&M
43%
57%
49
42
✗
TA&M −2.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#2Oregon
11%
89%
14
59
✓
ORE −18.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@North Texas
54%
46%
27
34
✗
BALL −1.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Idaho
98%
1.7%
45
35
✓
NIU −33.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Iowa State
46%
54%
27
21
✗
ISU −0.9
–
–
Final
#13UCF@#23Penn State
42%
58%
34
31
✗
PSU −2.5
–
–
Final
#25Washington@Illinois
66%
34%
34
24
✓
WASH −7.0
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
Mississippi State@Auburn
31%
69%
20
24
✓
AUB −7.2
–
–
Final
#14Ohio State@California
80%
20%
52
34
✓
OSU −13.6
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@USF
39%
61%
28
10
✗
USF −3.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@#8LSU
8.8%
91%
13
45
✓
LSU −20.6
–
–
Final
UMass@#12Kansas State
0.3%
>99%
7
37
✓
KSU −43.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@Middle Tennessee
31%
69%
15
17
✓
MTSU −7.0
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#17South Carolina
18%
82%
25
35
✓
SC −13.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@South Alabama
60%
40%
24
31
✗
WKU −4.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@UConn
70%
30%
32
21
✓
MD −8.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@Rice
25%
75%
14
23
✓
RICE −9.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#21Northwestern
4.9%
95%
17
38
✓
NU −25.4
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Oregon State@Utah
28%
72%
51
48
✗
UTAH −8.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@UNLV
43%
57%
21
31
✓
UNLV −2.3
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#15Arizona State
29%
71%
30
32
✓
ASU −7.9
–
–
Final
UTSA@Arizona
11%
89%
13
38
✓
ARIZ −18.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Air Force@Boise State
17%
83%
20
42
✓
BOIS −14.1
–
–

Sun, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
UTEP@New Mexico State
64%
36%
42
21
✓
UTEP −6.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
52%
48%
31
34
✗
MRSH −1.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@TexasUpset
23%
77%
44
23
✗
TEX −10.9
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@Purdue
85%
15%
31
24
✓
ND −16.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Cal Poly vs Colorado State Colorado State −20.0 90%
Sat, Sep 14 · 2:00 PM ET Youngstown State at Michigan State Michigan State −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at Minnesota Minnesota −42.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:00 PM ET Wagner at Syracuse Syracuse −30.6 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Lamar at #4 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −54.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 1:00 PM ET Fordham at Temple Temple −29.4 97%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:30 PM ET Southern Utah at Washington State Washington State −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Louisiana −33.0 98%
Sun, Sep 15 · TBD Weber State at #20 Utah State Utah State −50.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Stony Brook at Buffalo Buffalo −17.3 87%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Cincinnati Cincinnati −39.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 14 · 6:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at FIU FIU −18.3 89%
Sat, Sep 14 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 14 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Toledo Toledo −24.3 94%
Sat, Sep 14 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Wyoming Wyoming −39.8 >99%