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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 31

Wilder than 31% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 14.1 expected

  • Biggest shockCentral Michigan over Ohio8.4% chance · won 26-23
  • Runner-upTexas over Oklahoma25% chance · won 36-20
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Texas State29% chance · won 21-14

Upsets

Thu, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Rutgers@#15Louisville
18%
82%
10
24
✓
LOU −15.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
51%
49%
27
20
✓
SDSU −0.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Arizona@USC
42%
58%
31
38
✓
USC −3.6
–
–

Fri, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Temple@Cincinnati
14%
86%
20
38
✓
CIN −18.1
–
–

Sat, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
USF@UConn
37%
63%
13
10
✗
CONN −5.7
–
–
Final
#17Missouri@#9Georgia
30%
70%
41
26
✗
UGA −8.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Michigan State
34%
66%
28
42
✓
MSU −7.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
20%
80%
15
25
✓
HOU −13.8
–
–
Final
#11OklahomavsTexasUpset
75%
25%
20
36
✗
OU −11.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech
34%
66%
9
19
✓
VT −7.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Army
25%
75%
25
50
✓
ARMY −11.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Purdue
83%
17%
44
7
✓
NEB −15.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@TCU
9.7%
90%
17
27
✓
TCU −21.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#16Texas Tech
15%
85%
35
42
✓
TTU −17.4
–
–
Final
#21South Carolina@Arkansas
64%
36%
52
7
✓
SC −5.8
–
–
Final
Navy@Duke
51%
49%
7
35
✗
NAVY −0.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@OhioUpset
8.4%
92%
26
23
✗
OHIO −23.0
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Western Michigan
69%
31%
33
0
✓
BUF −8.1
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Miami (OH)@UMass
46%
54%
10
17
✓
MASS −1.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
16%
84%
24
27
✓
BALL −16.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado State
54%
46%
34
27
✓
SJSU −1.6
–
–
Final
#10Florida@#5LSU
32%
68%
6
17
✓
LSU −7.9
–
–
Final
Virginia@Maryland
20%
80%
26
27
✓
MD −14.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@NC State
48%
52%
24
10
✗
NCSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@#8Clemson
5.6%
94%
14
24
✓
CLEM −26.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#23Wisconsin
28%
72%
6
35
✓
WIS −9.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia State
84%
16%
35
28
✓
TROY −16.1
–
–
Final
#4Baylor@Kansas State
63%
37%
35
25
✓
BAY −5.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
68%
32%
33
36
✗
ECU −7.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
26%
74%
31
38
✓
WYO −10.6
–
–
Final
#1Oregon@#18Washington
71%
29%
45
24
✓
ORE −9.2
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
61%
39%
27
21
✓
RICE −4.4
–
–
Final
#25Michigan@Penn StateUpset
46%
54%
40
43
✓
PSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Marshall@Florida Atlantic
60%
40%
24
23
✓
MRSH −4.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Northern Illinois
9.6%
90%
20
27
✓
NIU −21.8
–
–
Final
#7Stanford@UtahUpset
67%
33%
21
27
✗
STAN −7.4
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#3Alabama@Kentucky
91%
9.3%
48
7
✓
ALA −21.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Texas
29%
71%
7
34
✓
UNT −9.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#22BYU
28%
72%
20
38
✓
BYU −9.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
29%
71%
21
14
✗
TXST −9.3
–
–
Final
Idaho@Arkansas State
3.0%
97%
24
48
✓
ARST −31.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Mississippi State
33%
67%
20
21
✓
MSST −7.5
–
–
Final
UAB@FIU
57%
42%
27
24
✓
UAB −3.0
–
–
Final
#6Texas A&M@Ole Miss
73%
27%
41
38
✓
TA&M −10.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Colorado@#19Arizona State
4.7%
95%
13
54
✓
ASU −27.8
–
–
Final
California@#12UCLA
3.1%
97%
10
37
✓
UCLA −31.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
50%
50%
52
24
✓
ORST −0.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Boise State@Utah State
32%
68%
34
23
✗
USU −7.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
33%
67%
37
39
✓
UNLV −7.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@UTEP
56%
44%
34
20
✓
TLSA −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 12 · 2:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Auburn Auburn −50.3 >99%