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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 75 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 81

Wilder than 81% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 11.6 expected

  • Biggest shockNicholls over Western Michigan0.6% chance · won 27-23
  • Runner-upWashington State over USC10% chance · won 10-7
  • Runner-upIllinois over Cincinnati14% chance · won 45-17

Upsets

Thu, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida Atlantic@East Carolina
19%
81%
13
31
✓
ECU −12.9
–
–

Sat, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Miami (OH)@Kentucky
21%
79%
7
41
✓
UK −11.8
–
–
Final
USF@Michigan State
5.3%
95%
6
21
✓
MSU −24.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Penn State
4.9%
95%
7
45
✓
PSU −25.4
–
–
Final
Houston@Temple
46%
54%
22
13
✗
TEM −0.9
–
–
Final
#14Cincinnati@IllinoisUpset
86%
14%
17
45
✗
CIN −17.1
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
44%
56%
41
22
✗
KENT −1.6
–
–
Final
#8Florida@#24Miami (FL)
48%
52%
16
21
✓
MIA −0.4
–
–
Final
#6Oklahoma State@UTSA
83%
17%
56
35
✓
OKST −15.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Tennessee
32%
68%
20
52
✓
TENN −6.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@North Carolina
17%
83%
20
40
✓
UNC −14.0
–
–
Final
Army@Ball State
13%
87%
14
40
✓
BALL −17.1
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Toledo@Missouri
33%
67%
23
38
✓
MIZ −6.3
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#19Ohio State
5.5%
94%
7
42
✓
OSU −24.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@#21Baylor
7.1%
93%
13
70
✓
BAY −22.5
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Virginia
76%
24%
59
10
✓
ORE −11.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Air Force
61%
39%
52
20
✓
USU −5.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Tulane
25%
75%
41
39
✗
TULN −9.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@Wyoming
1.4%
99%
10
42
✓
WYO −33.9
–
–
Final
#10South Carolina@#11Georgia
37%
63%
30
41
✓
UGA −4.6
–
–
Final
Duke@Memphis
52%
48%
28
14
✓
DUKE −1.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Northwestern
25%
75%
27
48
✓
NU −9.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Indiana
38%
62%
41
35
✗
IU −4.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Nebraska
9.6%
90%
13
56
✓
NEB −19.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@#16Kansas State
13%
87%
27
48
✓
KSU −17.3
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
North Texas@Ohio
42%
58%
21
27
✓
OHIO −2.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#5Oklahoma
8.9%
91%
7
16
✓
OU −20.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Tulsa
16%
84%
27
30
✓
TLSA −14.7
–
–
Final
#13Texas@BYUUpset
51%
49%
21
40
✗
TEX −0.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Auburn
52%
48%
9
38
✗
ARST −1.4
–
–
Final
UAB@#12LSU
5.4%
95%
17
56
✓
LSU −24.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Washington State@#23USCUpset
10%
90%
10
7
✗
USC −19.2
–
–
Final
Arizona@UNLV
76%
24%
58
13
✓
ARIZ −11.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
37%
63%
13
34
✓
STAN −4.7
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Wake Forest@Boston College
41%
59%
10
24
✓
BC −3.2
–
–
Final
#25UCF@FIU
84%
16%
38
0
✓
UCF −16.0
–
–

Sun, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#7Notre Dame@#9Michigan
37%
63%
30
41
✓
MICH −4.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@New Mexico State
80%
20%
44
21
✓
MINN −13.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Oregon State
11%
89%
14
33
✓
ORST −18.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
27%
73%
42
35
✗
UTEP −8.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at Arizona State Arizona State −22.2 93%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Samford vs Arkansas Arkansas −42.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 5:00 PM ET Portland State at California California −36.0 99%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD Central Arkansas at Colorado Colorado −24.1 94%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:00 PM ET UT Martin at Boise State Boise State −39.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at #20 Louisville Louisville −45.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Maine vs UMass UMass −10.9 77%
Sat, Sep 7 · 4:00 PM ET Old Dominion at Maryland Maryland −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Ole Miss Ole Miss −48.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET Richmond at NC State NC State −40.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Norfolk State vs Rutgers Rutgers −36.8 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:30 PM ET South Carolina State at #18 Clemson Clemson −47.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Austin Peay at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −50.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Sam Houston at #2 Texas A&M Texas A&M −28.0 97%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Weber State at Utah Utah −36.1 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 1:30 PM ET Western Carolina at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −45.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at #17 Wisconsin Wisconsin −47.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Marshall Marshall −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 10:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −36.6 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at Texas State Texas State −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:30 PM ET Alcorn State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −34.5 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 6:00 PM ET James Madison at Akron James Madison −3.1 57%
Sat, Sep 7 · 3:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Central Michigan Central Michigan −22.8 93%
Sat, Sep 7 · 2:00 PM ET Chattanooga vs Georgia State Georgia State −7.4 70%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Missouri State at Iowa Iowa −13.9 82%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET South Dakota at Kansas Kansas −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Lamar at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −35.5 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −37.4 99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 9:05 PM ET UC Davis at Nevada Nevada −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −36.6 99%
Sun, Sep 8 · TBD Montana State at SMU SMU −26.1 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 12:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at TCU TCU −46.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech Texas Tech −44.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Savannah State at Troy Troy −27.3 96%
Sat, Sep 7 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Western Michigan Western Michigan −39.4 99%