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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 75 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 100

Wilder than 100% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.6 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Illinois over San Diego State0.6% chance · won 40-19
  • Runner-upEastern Washington over Oregon State1.9% chance · won 49-46
  • Runner-upTowson over UConn2.8% chance · won 33-18

Upsets

Thu, Aug 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
North Carolina@#13South Carolina
29%
71%
10
27
✓
SC −7.9
–
–

Prime time 4 games

Final
UNLV@Minnesota
28%
72%
23
51
✓
MINN −8.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Bowling Green
53%
47%
7
34
✗
TLSA −1.8
–
–
Final
Akron@UCF
14%
86%
7
38
✓
UCF −16.5
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
37%
63%
39
35
✗
VAN −4.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Rutgers@Fresno State
38%
62%
51
52
✓
FRES −4.0
–
–
Final
#20USC@Hawaii
80%
20%
30
13
✓
USC −13.3
–
–

Fri, Aug 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#23Utah State@UtahUpset
53%
47%
26
30
✗
USU −1.7
–
–

Sat, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Buffalo@#15Ohio State
15%
85%
20
40
✓
OSU −15.4
–
–
Final
UMass@#16Wisconsin
4.9%
95%
0
45
✓
WIS −25.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@Cincinnati
27%
73%
7
42
✓
CIN −8.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@#8Florida
23%
77%
6
24
✓
FLA −10.9
–
–
Final
FIU@Maryland
35%
65%
10
43
✓
MD −5.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@NC State
49%
51%
14
40
✓
LT −0.2
–
–
Final
Rice@#3Texas A&M
15%
86%
31
52
✓
TA&M −15.9
–
–

Afternoon 8 games

Final
Temple@#7Notre Dame
16%
84%
6
28
✓
ND −14.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#17Michigan
16%
84%
9
59
✓
MICH −14.8
–
–
Final
Mississippi Statevs#6Oklahoma State
34%
66%
3
21
✓
OKST −5.7
–
–
Final
SyracusevsPenn State
43%
57%
17
23
✓
PSU −2.1
–
–
Final
#25BYU@VirginiaUpset
62%
38%
16
19
✗
BYU −5.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Iowa
53%
47%
30
27
✓
NIU −1.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas
40%
60%
14
34
✓
ARK −3.6
–
–
Final
#1AlabamavsVirginia Tech
78%
22%
35
10
✓
ALA −12.2
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Washington State@Auburn
33%
67%
24
31
✓
AUB −6.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#10Oklahoma
22%
78%
0
34
✓
OU −11.7
–
–
Final
Idaho@North Texas
6.1%
94%
6
40
✓
UNT −23.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Marshall
33%
67%
14
52
✓
MRSH −6.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Southern Miss
43%
57%
22
15
✗
USM −2.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Troy
31%
69%
31
34
✓
TROY −7.1
–
–
Final
KentuckyvsWestern Kentucky
43%
57%
26
35
✓
WKU −2.4
–
–
Final
#12LSUvsTCU
58%
42%
37
27
✓
LSU −3.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Nevada@UCLA
30%
70%
20
58
✓
UCLA −7.4
–
–
Final
#18Boise State@WashingtonUpset
53%
47%
6
38
✗
BOIS −1.7
–
–
Final
Northwestern@California
54%
46%
44
30
✓
NU −2.2
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Western Michigan@Michigan State
24%
76%
13
26
✓
MSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Miami (FL)
18%
82%
6
34
✓
MIA −13.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
45%
55%
41
23
✗
SMU −1.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Ohio@Louisville
31%
69%
7
49
✓
LOU −7.1
–
–
Final
ColoradovsColorado State
41%
59%
41
27
✗
CSU −3.0
–
–

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Wyoming@Nebraska
20%
80%
34
37
✓
NEB −12.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@New Mexico
40%
60%
21
13
✗
UNM −3.5
–
–
Final
#4Georgia@#14Clemson
48%
52%
35
38
✓
CLEM −0.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#21Texas
9.8%
90%
7
56
✓
TEX −19.6
–
–

Tue, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#9Florida State@Pittsburgh
59%
41%
41
13
✓
FSU −4.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Southern Utah vs South Alabama South Alabama −16.3 86%
Thu, Aug 29 · 10:00 PM ET Sacramento State at San Jose State San Jose State −16.6 86%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Towson at UConn UConn −29.5 97%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Indiana Indiana −28.5 97%
Thu, Aug 29 · 6:30 PM ET Presbyterian at Wake Forest Wake Forest −31.6 98%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:00 PM ET Illinois State at Ball State Ball State −22.5 93%
Thu, Aug 29 · 6:00 PM ET Liberty at Kent State Kent State −8.9 73%
Thu, Aug 29 · 7:30 PM ET Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −33.1 98%
Fri, Aug 30 · TBD Jackson State at Tulane Tulane −20.2 91%
Fri, Aug 30 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −34.5 99%
Fri, Aug 30 · 8:30 PM ET Southern at Houston Houston −29.8 97%
Fri, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Morgan State at Army Army −35.7 99%
Fri, Aug 30 · 7:00 PM ET Samford vs Georgia State Georgia State −18.5 89%
Fri, Aug 30 · 8:30 PM ET North Dakota State at #5 Kansas State Kansas State −7.1 69%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Eastern Illinois at San Diego State San Diego State −38.9 99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET McNeese at USF USF −25.4 95%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Elon at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −37.6 99%
Sun, Sep 1 · TBD Northern Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State −25.6 95%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Villanova at Boston College Boston College −30.0 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Missouri Missouri −43.0 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 4:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at Duke Duke −31.3 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Old Dominion at East Carolina East Carolina −16.9 87%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at #22 Oregon State Oregon State −32.0 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:30 PM ET Wofford vs #19 Baylor Baylor −31.0 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET William & Mary at West Virginia West Virginia −32.3 98%
Sat, Aug 31 · 12:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Illinois Illinois −28.1 97%
Sat, Aug 31 · 3:00 PM ET Colgate at Air Force Air Force −22.0 92%
Sat, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas State Arkansas State −27.9 96%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Howard at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −23.2 94%
Sat, Aug 31 · 4:00 PM ET Nicholls at #2 Oregon Oregon −48.8 >99%
Sat, Aug 31 · 6:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Tennessee Tennessee −37.5 99%