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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 58 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

10 upsets against 12.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUtah over BYU30% chance · won 20-13
  • Runner-upMemphis over Arkansas State34% chance · won 31-7
  • Runner-upUTSA over UTEP35% chance · won 32-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Clemson@NC State
62%
38%
26
14
✓
CLEM −5.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boise State@Fresno State
44%
56%
40
41
✓
FRES −2.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
North Carolina@Georgia Tech
30%
70%
20
28
✓
GT −8.9
–
–
Final
FIU@#22Louisville
1.9%
98%
0
72
✓
LOU −34.3
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@UMass
92%
7.9%
24
7
✓
VAN −23.3
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Minnesota
51%
49%
24
43
✗
SJSU −0.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Virginia Tech
35%
65%
21
29
✓
VT −6.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Army
49%
51%
25
11
✗
ARMY −0.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
69%
31%
38
17
✓
TOL −8.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
40%
60%
42
35
✗
FAU −4.3
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Iowa
16%
84%
3
59
✓
IOWA −16.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Kansas
41%
59%
10
13
✓
KU −4.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@#8Georgia
9.8%
90%
21
45
✓
UGA −21.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Duke
50%
50%
58
55
✗
DUKE −0.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@Syracuse
18%
82%
17
52
✓
SYR −15.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
75%
25%
51
20
✓
BALL −11.0
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
HoustonvsRice
55%
45%
31
26
✓
HOU −1.8
–
–
Final
#21Utah State@USCUpset
43%
57%
14
17
✓
USC −3.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@#16Florida
22%
78%
17
31
✓
FLA −13.1
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Notre Dame
29%
71%
13
17
✓
ND −9.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Maryland
36%
64%
0
37
✓
MD −6.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Rutgers
38%
62%
24
28
✓
RUTG −5.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Penn State
14%
86%
0
34
✓
PSU −18.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@#25Wisconsin
8.4%
92%
10
41
✓
WIS −22.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
83%
17%
14
0
✓
CIN −15.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#10Baylor
8.8%
91%
7
70
✓
BAY −22.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
66%
34%
7
31
✗
ARST −6.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Akron
56%
44%
35
30
✓
UL −2.3
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#17Arizona State@#11Stanford
35%
65%
28
42
✓
STAN −6.4
–
–
Final
SMU@#4Texas A&M
5.2%
95%
13
42
✓
TA&M −27.1
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#2Alabama
1.4%
99%
6
31
✓
ALA −36.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Texas Tech
14%
86%
7
33
✓
TTU −17.9
–
–
Final
Oregon State@San Diego State
72%
28%
34
30
✓
ORST −9.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Mississippi State
29%
72%
7
62
✓
MSST −9.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@#5LSU
18%
82%
21
35
✓
LSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
26%
74%
9
31
✓
NEV −10.7
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Utah@BYU
30%
70%
20
13
✗
BYU −8.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
50%
50%
56
23
✗
AF −0.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#9UCLA
0.7%
99%
13
59
✓
UCLA −40.8
–
–
Final
Idaho@Washington State
1.8%
98%
0
42
✓
WSU −34.9
–
–

Sun, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#18Michigan@UConn
85%
15%
24
21
✓
MICH −17.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Indiana
41%
59%
45
28
✗
IU −3.7
–
–
Final
#15Kansas State@TexasUpset
61%
39%
21
31
✗
KSU −4.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@UTEP
34%
66%
32
13
✗
UTEP −6.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:00 PM ET Northwestern State vs UAB UAB −29.6 96%
Sat, Sep 21 · 6:00 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at #3 Florida State Florida State −49.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Maine at #19 Northwestern Northwestern −49.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:00 PM ET Morgan State at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −44.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET South Dakota State at Nebraska Nebraska −41.1 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET Murray State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −51.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM ET Florida A&M at #12 Ohio State Ohio State −50.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 2:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Ohio Ohio −39.9 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:30 PM ET VMI at Virginia Virginia −38.6 99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 3:00 PM ET Idaho State at #23 Washington Washington −52.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 2:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Georgia State Jacksonville State −19.6 88%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:00 PM ET Savannah State at #20 Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −49.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 21 · 9:00 PM ET Western Illinois vs UNLV UNLV −22.2 91%
Sat, Sep 21 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −38.6 99%