The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2013

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 35 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 15 · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 87

Wilder than 87% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockUCF over Baylor17% chance · won 52-42
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Arizona State19% chance · won 37-23
  • Runner-upNebraska over Georgia20% chance · won 24-19

Upsets

Sat, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Washington StatevsColorado State
53%
47%
45
48
✗
WSU −1.7
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Fresno Statevs#23USC
39%
61%
20
45
✓
USC −4.1
–
–
Final
BuffalovsSan Diego State
67%
33%
24
49
✗
BUF −7.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
TulanevsLouisiana
42%
58%
21
24
✓
UL −2.8
–
–

Mon, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
OhiovsEast Carolina
21%
79%
20
37
✓
ECU −12.3
–
–

Tue, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boise StatevsOregon State
56%
44%
23
38
✗
BOIS −2.9
–
–

Thu, Dec 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
PittsburghvsBowling Green
32%
68%
30
27
✗
BGSU −6.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Utah StatevsNorthern Illinois
57%
43%
21
14
✓
USU −3.2
–
–

Fri, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
MarshallvsMaryland
64%
36%
31
20
✓
MRSH −6.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
SyracusevsMinnesota
44%
56%
21
17
✗
MINN −2.1
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#24BYUvs#21Washington
45%
55%
16
31
✓
WASH −1.5
–
–

Sat, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Rutgersvs#25Notre Dame
15%
85%
16
29
✓
ND −16.3
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
CincinnativsNorth Carolina
45%
55%
17
39
✓
UNC −1.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)vs#22Louisville
39%
61%
9
36
✓
LOU −3.9
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Michiganvs#20Kansas State
38%
62%
14
31
✓
KSU −4.3
–
–

Mon, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsNavy
31%
69%
6
24
✓
NAVY −7.6
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Ole MissvsGeorgia Tech
49%
51%
25
17
✗
PK
–
–
Final
#4OregonvsTexas
78%
22%
30
7
✓
ORE −13.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#7Arizona StatevsTexas TechUpset
81%
19%
23
37
✗
ASU −14.6
–
–

Tue, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
ArizonavsBoston College
73%
27%
42
19
✓
ARIZ −10.1
–
–
Final
Virginia Techvs#19UCLA
30%
70%
12
42
✓
UCLA −7.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
RicevsMississippi State
40%
60%
7
44
✓
MSST −3.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Dukevs#13Texas A&M
21%
79%
48
52
✓
TA&M −12.3
–
–

Wed, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 4 games

Final
Nebraskavs#14GeorgiaUpset
20%
80%
24
19
✗
UGA −12.9
–
–
Final
UNLVvsNorth Texas
23%
77%
14
36
✓
UNT −11.3
–
–
Final
Iowavs#12LSU
27%
73%
14
21
✓
LSU −9.4
–
–
Final
#11Wisconsinvs#10South Carolina
48%
52%
24
34
✓
SC −0.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#5Stanfordvs#18Michigan State
63%
37%
20
24
✗
STAN −5.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UCFvs#3BaylorUpset
17%
83%
52
42
✗
BAY −14.7
–
–

Thu, Jan 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#17Oklahomavs#2AlabamaUpset
23%
77%
45
31
✗
ALA −11.4
–
–

Fri, Jan 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#6Oklahoma Statevs#9Missouri
56%
44%
31
41
✗
OKST −2.8
–
–
Final
#16Clemsonvs#8Ohio State
40%
60%
40
35
✗
OSU −3.8
–
–

Sat, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
VanderbiltvsHouston
41%
59%
41
24
✗
HOU −3.2
–
–

Sun, Jan 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Arkansas StatevsBall State
29%
71%
23
20
✗
BALL −8.2
–
–

Mon, Jan 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Florida Statevs#15Auburn
82%
18%
34
31
✓
FSU −14.9
–
–